- More than 90% of recent market decline has been reflected in current prices
- Benchmark indices fell over 15% this year amid geopolitical and economic pressures
- Crude oil price volatility has moderated compared to earlier conflict phases
More than 90% of the recent market decline has already been reflected in prices, and investors with available cash should begin deploying funds, Sunil Singhania said, as equities remain volatile amid global tensions and foreign outflows.
The founder of Abakkus Asset Manager LLP told NDTV Profit in an interaction that the markets have reacted sharply to shifting developments around the ongoing conflict and crude price movements, but much of the damage appears to have been absorbed. “More than 90% of the market pain seems to have been discounted,” he said.
The benchmark indices have fallen over 15% so far this year, entering a correction phase as higher transaction taxes, geopolitical tensions and currency weakness weighed on sentiment. Both the Nifty and Sensex declined 11% in March, their steepest monthly fall since the Covid period, while the Nifty ended FY26 down more than 5% and the Sensex lost 7%.
Singhania said the sharp swings in markets reflect uncertainty in news flow rather than a change in underlying trends. “Any kind of conflict or war-like situation will create nervousness,” he said, adding that markets have been reacting to frequent shifts in public statements around the situation.
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He said crude oil volatility has moderated compared with earlier phases of the conflict. “Prices were jumping 10–20%, now it is three to four% up or down,” he said, indicating that markets are beginning to absorb such developments.
Foreign investor selling has added to the pressure, particularly in March. “There has been a barrage of selling by foreigners… upwards of one lakh 10,000 crore,” he said, noting that this had weighed more on Indian markets than some regional peers.
Despite the recent decline, Singhania said the broader economic outlook remains intact. He said India's growth trajectory of 6.5–7% continues to support equities. “There is no reason to believe that India as an economy will not grow, and therefore equity markets will not grow,” he said.
He added that valuations had corrected after a period when Indian markets traded at a premium to peers. Prior to the recent conflict, macro conditions were improving, supported by tax cuts, lower interest rates, improved liquidity and recovery in demand, he said.
For investors, he said the current phase calls for measured deployment rather than caution. “For those who are sitting on cash, I would say, if not now, then when,” Singhania said. He suggested deploying 30–50% of available funds at current levels.
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On sectors, he said pharmaceuticals remain supported by earnings visibility and currency trends, while banks have been affected by foreign selling and bond yield movements. “Banks have borne the brunt,” he said, adding that the sector could recover quickly once conditions stabilise.
He also pointed to opportunities in consumption-linked stocks and select segments of chemicals and metals, noting that domestic demand trends have remained steady.
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