GAIL expects a minimum marketing Ebitda of Rs 45 billion in FY25, with a potential range of Rs 45-50 billion in FY26.
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Systematix Research Report
GAIL India Ltd.'s Q3 FY25 result was below our expectations on the back of lower than expected profit from gas trading business and lower transmission volume. Ebitda experienced a 24% sequential decline (-26% YoY) to Rs 28.4 billion, primarily driven by a 45% decrease in trading profit and 3.6% QoQ fall in transmission volume. However, LHC segment reported a strong growth of 47% QoQ to Rs 4.1 billion led by higher LPG price.
Gas transmission volumes declined 4% QoQ at 125.9 million metric standard cubic metre per day (+3.6% YoY) due to reduced offtake in the power segment while the effective tariff remained stable at Rs2.13/scm. Ebitda/scm witnessed a 16% sequential decline to Rs 0.9/scm due to elevated spot LNG prices.
Gas trading volumes grew by 7% QoQ to 103.5 mmscmd as the company sold 9 mmscmd in the international market. Further, the company received Rs 24.4 billion as a one-time settlement for the nonsupply of the contractual gas from Gazprom.
Petrochemical utilisation remained healthy at 106% and reported Ebitda declined 54% QoQ to Rs 1.3 billion due to higher gas cost and shrinking HDPE margins.
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