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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
Aster DM Healthcare Ltd. Q4 consolidated Ebitda grew strong by 29% YoY to Rs 1.6 billion. GCC stake sale concluded in March 2024 and the company distributed 80% of proceeds as a one-time dividend.
Aster DM India's Ebitda increased sharply over the last three years (29% CAGR over FY22-24). We estimate 30% Ebitda compound annual growth rate over FY24-26E aided by scale-up in margins, healthy average revenue per operating bed and bed additions.
Our FY25E/26E estimates for India business Ebitda remain unchanged. At current market price, the stock is trading at 20 times earning value/Ebitda on FY26E, respectively adjusted for minority stake and rental.
We maintain ‘Buy' rating with target price of Rs 400, valuing the India hospital segment at 23 times earning value /Ebitda on FY26E Ebitda.
Utilisation of proceeds and timely expansion will be key monitorables in the near term.
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