All You Need To Know Going Into Trade On Feb. 15

The yen extended an advance and a rally in global stocks continued in Asia as equity investors showed signs of warming to a world with inflation and a quicker pace of tightening for U.S. monetary policy following this month's slide in risk assets.

The Singapore-traded SGX Nifty, an early indicator of NSE Nifty 50 Index's performance in India, rose 0.9 percent to 10,554 as of 7:00 a.m.

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DayBreak

Here's a quick look at all that could influence equities on Thursday.

Global Cues

• U.S. stocks extended a rebound while Treasury yields rose to a four-year high as economic data supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a gradual approach to raising interest rates.
• The S&P 500 Index climbed for a fourth day as banks and durable-goods makers rallied, returning the gauge to a gain for the year after it fell more than 10 percent from a January peak.

#BQMarketsNow | U.S. stocks rally as 10-year yield reaches 2.9%.https://t.co/LaXfcQ7cZS pic.twitter.com/OmHvk8PSge

• Signs of an inflation pickup have roiled financial markets this month, and stock futures tumbled early Wednesday on concern the Fed would quicken its pace of tightening following data that showed faster-than-forecast inflation. Those fears receded as investors digested a separate report showing weak retail sales that raised questions about the economy's strength.

10-year Treasury yield tops 2.9% as CPI beats expectations.https://t.co/LaXfcQ7cZS pic.twitter.com/po6Xdpuqo0

• New Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested Tuesday that the Federal Open Market Committee would forge ahead with gradual tightening even as it keeps an eye on financial-system risks following the recent equity rout.

Europe Check

• European stocks erased losses following better-than-estimates U.S. inflation data to close at the highest level in a week.

Asian Cues

• Japan's Topix index climbed 1.3 percent and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.3 percent.
• Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.8 percent.
• Futures on Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent.
• S&P 500 futures were little changed. The benchmark rose 1.3 percent Wednesday, when the Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 1.1 percent.
• The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.8 percent.

Japan leads Asian markets higher. #BQMarketsNowhttps://t.co/LaXfcQ7cZS pic.twitter.com/xhW8GWsRtc

Here are some of the key events scheduled for this week:

• Lunar new year celebrations for the Year of the Dog begin, affecting China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Chinese mainland markets are closed Feb. 15-21.
• Australia releases January employment data on Thursday.
• Earnings season continues in full swing.

Euro-Area economy keeps cruising speed as outlook improves.https://t.co/mHGkWWbULu pic.twitter.com/yRpbVlmGd3

Economic Data To Watch

• 12pm: India Jan. Wholesale Price Inflation YoY; Estimate 3.20 percent (prior 3.58 percent)

India Jan. trade balance; estimate -$13 billion (prior -$14.88 billion)

• Exports; no estimate (prior +12.4 percent)
• Imports; no estimate (prior +21.1 percent)

Commodity Cues

• West Texas Intermediate rose 0.4 percent to $60.82 a barrel after jumping the most this year.
• Gold climbed 0.2 percent to $1,353.47 an ounce.
• Brent crude ended higher for second day at $64.36 per barrel; up 2.6 percent.
• Sugar ended lower for second day at 13.31 cents per pound; down 1 percent.

Indian ADRs

Earnings Reaction To Watch

Cox and Kings Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 2 percent at Rs 1356 crore.
• Net profit up at Rs 96 crore versus Rs 15 crore.
• EBITDA up 68 percent at Rs 168.5 crore.
• Margin at 12.4 percent versus 7.3 percent.

Endurance Tech Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 19.8 percent at Rs 1,581 crore.
• Net profit up 5.4 percent at Rs 78 crore.
• EBITDA up 25.6 percent at Rs 223.5 crore.
• Margin at 14.1 percent versus 13.5 percent.

Nestle Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 15 percent at Rs 2,601.5 crore.
• Net profit up 60 percent at Rs 312 crore.
• EBITDA up 37.5 percent at Rs 533.5 crore.
• Margin at 20.5 percent versus 17.1 percent.

Welspun Enterprises Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up at Rs 299 crore versus Rs 54 crore.
• Net profit up at Rs 16 crore versus Rs 3.5 crore.
• EBITDA at Rs 11.5 crore from a loss of Rs 10 crore.
• Margin at 3.8 percent versus -18.5 percent.

Camlin Fine Sciences Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 54.5 percent at Rs 207 crore.
• Net loss of Rs 10 crore versus net loss of Rs 5 crore.
• EBITDA up at Rs 5 crore versus Rs 2 crore.
• Margin at 2.4 percent versus 1.5 percent.

GTPL Hathway Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 22 percent at Rs 189.5 crore.
• Net profit up at Rs 24 crore versus Rs 4 crore.
• EBITDA up 49 percent at Rs 58 crore.
• Margin at 30.6 percent versus 25.2 percent.

Speciality Restaurants Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 5 percent at Rs 79 crore.
• Net profit of Rs 0.7 crore versus net loss of Rs 4 crore.
• EBITDA up at Rs 5 crore versus Rs 3 crore.
• Margin at 6.3 percent versus 3.6 percent.

Apollo Hospitals Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 13 percent at Rs 1,896 crore.
• Net profit down 8 percent at Rs 67 crore.
• EBITDA up 14 percent at Rs 221.5 crore.
• Margin at 11.7 percent versus 11.5 percent.

Jet Airways Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 10 percent at Rs 6,086 crore.
• Net profit down 46 percent at Rs 165 crore.
• EBITDAR up 3 percent at Rs 865 crore.
• Margin at 14.2 percent versus 15.2 percent.

Repco Home Finance Q3 (YoY)

• Net interest income up 20 percent at Rs 115.5 crore.
• Net profit up 5 percent at Rs 48.5 crore.
• GNPA at 3.70 percent versus 3.40 percent (QoQ).
• Net NPA at 2.05 percent versus 1.90 percent (QoQ).

PNC Infratech Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 2 percent at Rs 472 crore.
• Net profit up 21 percent at Rs 93 crore.
• EBITDA up 10 percent at Rs 66 crore.
• Margin at 14 percent versus 13 percent.

8K Miles Q3 (QoQ)

• Revenue up 6 percent at Rs 224 crore.
• Net profit up 10 percent at Rs 45 crore.
• EBITDA up 6.25 percent at Rs 68 crore.
• Margin at 30.4 percent versus 30.3 percent.

Balkrishna Industries Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 23.4 percent at Rs 1,106 crore.
• Net profit up 2 percent at Rs 189.5 crore.
• EBITDA up 4 percent at Rs 290 crore.
• Margin at 26.2 percent versus 31.0 percent.

Prime Focus Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 20 percent at Rs 609.5 crore.
• Net loss of Rs 9 crore from a profit of Rs 23 crore.
• EBITDA up 8.6 percent at Rs 120.5 crore.
• Margin at 19.8 percent versus 21.9 percent.

SP Apparels Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 11 percent at Rs 163 crore.
• Net profit down 13 percent at Rs 13.8 crore.
• EBITDA up 13 percent at Rs 30 crore.
• Margin at 18.4 percent versus 18.1 percent.

VIP Clothing Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 4.5 percent at Rs 46 crore.
• Net loss of Rs 1 crore versus net loss of Rs 1.3 crore.
• EBITDA unchanged at Rs 3 crore.
• Margin at 6.5 percent versus 6.8 percent.

JBM Auto Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue up 8 percent at Rs 396 crore.
• Net profit flat at Rs 15.1 crore.
• EBITDA up 13 percent at Rs 48 crore.
• Margin at 12.1 percent versus 11.6 percent.

Sun Pharma Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 16 percent at Rs 6,653 crore.
• Net profit down 75 percent at Rs 365 crore.
• EBITDA down 41 percent at Rs 1453 crore.
• Margin at 21.8 percent versus 30.9 percent.

IndoCount Industries Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 8 percent at Rs 451 crore.
• Net profit down 36 percent at Rs 36 crore.
• EBITDA down 33 percent at Rs 61 crore.
• Margin at 13.5 percent versus 18.6 percent.

HDIL Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 12 percent at Rs 99 crore.
• Net profit down 52.5 percent at Rs 19 crore.
• EBITDA down 21 percent at Rs 122 crore.
• Finance cost down 9 percent at Rs 95 crore.

NLC India Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 9.6 percent at Rs 1,706.5 crore.
• Net profit down 6.5 percent at Rs 314 crore.
• EBITDA down 7 percent at Rs 587.5 crore.
• Margin at 34.4 percent versus 33.4 percent.

Anant Raj Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 11 percent at Rs 120 crore.
• Net profit down 19 percent at Rs 17 crore.
• EBITDA down 23 percent at Rs 34 crore.
• Margin at 28.3 percent versus 32.4 percent.

Vivimed Labs Q3 (YoY)

• Revenue down 17 percent at Rs 300 crore.
• Net profit down 60 percent at Rs 21 crore.
• EBITDA down 51 percent at Rs 49 crore.
• Margin at 16.3 percent versus 27.6 percent.

#Q3WithBQ | Jet Airways' profit fell for the second straight quarter due to higher fuel expenses.https://t.co/87VAMTYN2b pic.twitter.com/BYT1E9NEWr

Stocks To Watch

• Sun Pharma said it will miss FY18 guidance marginally.
• Zee Learn to acquire 44.5 percent stake in MT Educare for Rs 200 crore
• Torrent Power signed a pact with Siemens Gamesa to set up 120 MW wind power project.
• Sunteck Realty board approved merger of 3 subsidiaries with itself.
• Infibeam to raise Rs 40 crore by issuing warrants to Network 18.
• Punj Lloyd board approved restructuring plan to issue shares, bonds to certain lenders and promoters.
• Indocount to set up textile unit in Germany.
• Indiabulls Real Estate to finalise options for selling its residential and commercial property in Chennai.

PNB is at the centre of one of the largest frauds detected across the Indian banking sector. @visshy_it reports. https://t.co/r7XtmuWQsx pic.twitter.com/zPNLCVXpT8

Bulk Deals

• Unichem Labs: Nordea 1 - Indian Equity Fund sold 5.4 lakh shares or 0.6 percent equity at Rs 379.26 each.
• MT Educare: India Max Investment Fund sold 3 lakh shares or 0.8 percent equity at Rs 71.15 each.
• ADF Foods: Kuber India Fund sold 1.10 lakh shares or 0.5 percent equity at Rs 249 each.

Safari Industries

• Malabar India Fund bought 5.89 lakh shares or 2.6 percent equity at Rs 520 each.
• Rohinton Screwala bought 2.79 lakh shares or 1.3 percent equity at Rs 520 each.
• Tano India Private Equity Fund II sold 9.84 lakh shares or 4.4 percent equity at Rs 520.01 each.

Jash Engineering

• India Multi Bagger Fund I bought 99,600 shares at Rs 175 each.
• UNIFI AIF 2 sold 1.40 lakh shares at Rs 176.43 each.

IPO

• Aster DM Healthcare continues on day 3. The issue is subscribed 0.43 times. (Here's an all you need to know)

Trading Tweaks

• Praxis Home Retail circuit filter revised to 10 percent and shifted to B group.
• SORIL Infra Resources circuit filter revised to 5 percent.
• DPSC two day offer for sale starts.
• Unichem Labs ex-date to determine buyback eligibility.

Insider Trades

• Anmol Jain promoter of Lumax Industries bought 10,000 shares on Feb. 8-9.
• Electrotherm India Ltd promoter bought 15,000 shares on Feb. 9.

Rupee

• Rupee closed at 64.09/$ on Wednesday from 64.32/$ on Monday.

Top Gainers And Losers

Index Trends

F&O Cues

• Nifty February futures trade at 10,495.2, discount of 5.7 points versus premium of 3.4 points.
• February series: Nifty open interest down 1 percent, Bank Nifty open interest up 13 percent.
• India VIX ended at 17.1, down 3.9 percent.
• Max open interest for February series at 11,100 call strike (open interest at 53.9 lakh, down 5.4 percent).
• Max open interest for February series at 10,500 put (open interest at 58.3 lakh, up 8 percent).

F&O Ban

• In ban: Balrampur Chini, Dish TV, GMR Infra, HDIL, JP Associates, Oriental Bank
• New in ban: Oriental Bank

Only intraday positions can be taken in stocks which are in F&O ban. There is a penalty in case of a rollover of these intraday positions.

Put-Call Ratio

• Nifty PCR at 1.08 from 1.10.
• Nifty Bank PCR at 0.78 from 0.98.

Stocks Seeing High Open Interest Change

Fund Flows

Brokerage Radar

CLSA on Tata Power

• Maintained ‘Buy' with price target of Rs 100.
• Magagement serious on monetising non-core assets to deleverage balance sheet.
• December quarter's core Ebitda was up, but Mundra UMPP struggled.
• Indo coal volume decline and margins up, but the best is yet to come.
• Expect earnings turnaround led by deleveraging plan and net long-coal position.

Antique on Strides Shasun

• Initiated ‘Buy' with price target of Rs 970.
• Expect industry leading growth trajectory from Strides in next five years.
• Strides in good position to extract operating leverage.
• Expect Revenue CAGR of 20 percent through the financial years till March 2020 and 560 basis points improvement in operating margin.
• Australia – multiple growth levers.
• US – At a turning point and a prudent medium-term strategy.
• API business divestment to make company leaner.
• Balance sheet to improve; Net debt/Ebitda to reduce to 1.2 times by March 2020.
• Return on equity to improve to 14 percent by March 2020.

Macquarie on NCC

• Maintained ‘Outperform' with price target of Rs 125.
• December quarter's net profit well above estimates led by margin expansion.
• Order book at Rs 31,600 crore, surpassing full-year estimate.
• Order book improves revenue visibility further.
• Recent fund-raising to take care of working capital requirement.

CLSA on NCC

• Maintained ‘Buy'; raised price target to Rs 160 from Rs 130.
• Order-book grows robustly.
• Net profit driven by savings in material costs.
• Management guidance remains optimistic; Growth funded via QIP.
• Expect 25 percent compounded growth rate in earnings per share over the financial years through March 2020 on execution, margin improvement and low base.
• Buy on an improving balance sheet and state Capex.

JPMorgan on Grasim

• Maintained ‘Overweight' with price target of Rs 1,375.
• December quarter's standalone EBITDA beat driven by strong chemical segment.
• VSF: Steady quarter. Back in expansion mode.
• Chemicals: Margin beat on surge in caustic prices.
• See limited risk of capital allocation to subsidiaries.

Goldman Sachs on Nestle

• Maintained ‘Sell'; raised price target to Rs 5,614 from Rs 5,485.
• December quarter's revenue and operating income were above estimates.
• Domestic sales growth driven by higher volume growth and realisations.
• Gross margin ahead of estimates driven by better product mix.
• Remain sell on expensive valuations.

Motilal Oswal on Sun Pharma

• Maintained ‘Buy'; raised price target to Rs 675 from Rs 610.
• Operating performance in-line.
• Gross margin shrunk due to higher raw material cost for Taro and product mix change.
• Halol resolution key catalyst.
• Improvement in US business remains key.

CLSA on Sun Pharma

• Maintained ‘Sell' with TP of Rs 430.
• December quarter's operational performance was In-line.
• In-line numbers were surprise as Taro reported weakest quarter.
• Expect specialty pipeline ramp-up in the next fiscal, but contribution to profit to be negative.
• Further delay in Halol clearance could hurt U.S. recovery.
• Key earnings driver will be improvement in U.S. revenue.
• Current rich valuations do not factor in potential delays in Halol clearance and specialty ramp-up.

Credit Suisse on Sun Pharma

• Maintained ‘Outperform' with price target of Rs 640.
• December quarter was weak on account of Taro; Cut 8 percent, 5 percent and 3 percent for the current and the next two financial years respectively.
• Recovery in U.S. sales and operating margins after a year.
• Weak sales ex-U.S.; sales growth guidance cut.
• Margin guidance maintained for the current fiscal.
• Specialty business: Odomzo ramp-up to pick-up.

Credit Suisse on Nestle

• Maintained ‘Outperform'; raised price target to Rs 9,000 from Rs 8,700.
• December quarter earnings takeaway: Massive beat reaffirms view that turnaround is gathering momentum.
• Revenue growth driven by volumes; Fastest growth among peers.
• Expect more tailwinds in 2018 as prices of key inputs are coming off
• GST rate cuts add more tailwinds for the current year.

Nestle crosses Rs 10,000 crore sales mark in 2017.https://t.co/hwpBTgIcKQ pic.twitter.com/nI8Kv6xXOl

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