Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran said that India reducing its purchase of Russian crude oil, may not necessarily "remain a big deal" for India's economic outlook and its potential losses. Nageswarana spoke to NDTV Profit about the Indian economy at the 'NDTV Profit Conclave 2026' event on Saturday.
"Other things being equal, if the Iran situation doesn't get out of control in the middle east, oil prices remain the same, from an oil procurement perspective it may not necessarily remain a big deal for India," Nageswaran said.
India has notably reduced its crude oil purchase from Russia in light of facing 25% of the initial 50% sanctions that the US had imposed on the former alleging that this purchasing helping fund Russia's war with Ukraine. The sanctions were reduced to 18% and the two nations recently announced a free trade agreement.
"Russia is aware of the fact that when the Rostneft and Lukoil sanctions were announced, there was a natural tendency for India to remain cautious because we didn't want to expose our financial systems to sanctions as well, they also understand the compulsions, just as many other countries also take measures to safeguard their domestic industries in the face of sanctions," Nageswaran said.
The CEA also provided his estimates regarding India's Gross Domestic Product growth, citing it to be around 6.8-7.2%.
"I did say that there is an upside risk to my range of 6.8-7.2 %, let's say the mid point is 7%, now I can think of an upside that could last anywhere between 20-40 bps," he said.
He stated that India should wait for how the new revised series and new base year play out.
"In the economic survey, we talk about the three global risk scenarios, and we're also beginning to see this play out simulatenously with volatility of primary markets rising through multiple asset classes, spillover effects, etc, underway" Nageswaran said.
"We need to also factor in global risk factors, if we do that, need to take a calibrate look into how far I can increase growth projections or comfortable with the range we have already indicated," he added.
He did say that on balance, he was prepared to concede there is an upside risk of growth estimate rather than downside.
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