- Global uncertainty reached a record peak on the World Uncertainty Index in September 2025
- The index surpassed levels seen during 9/11, the 2008 crash, and the 2020 COVID-19 crisis
- The WUI measures uncertainty by counting relevant terms in Economist Intelligence Unit reports
Global uncertainty has reached unprecedented levels, according to the latest reading of the World Uncertainty Index, which climbed to a record peak recently.
The measure now stands higher than it did during some of the most turbulent episodes of the past two decades, including the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the 2003 Iraq War, the 2008 financial crash, and the COVID-19 crisis in 2020.
It hit a peak of 122,422.5 in September 2025. As of January 2026, it stood at 79,904.3. This contrasts with the peaks of 57,518 seen in May 2019 and 56,223.6 in March 2020.
BREAKING: The World Uncertainty Index surged past 2020 pandemic highs.
— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 12, 2026
It is now higher than the 2008 Great Financial Crisis and even above the 2001 recession peak.
We are officially living in unprecedented economic times. pic.twitter.com/ui3Fv6cQ5e
The measure is based on textual analysis of country reports produced by the Economist Intelligence Unit. By counting mentions of “uncertainty” and related terms, the WUI offers a snapshot of how frequently instability and unpredictability are being flagged in official assessments.
“The WUI is computed by counting the per cent of word ‘uncertain' (or its variant) in the Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. The WUI is then rescaled by multiplying by 1,000,000. A higher number means higher uncertainty and vice versa,” as per the official website.
Elevated readings on the index tend to coincide with heightened policy ambiguity, sharper swings in equity markets and slower economic expansion. Research indicates that spikes in uncertainty are closely linked to increased risk across financial systems, according to policyuncertainty.com.
An econometric study using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model across 46 countries found that sudden rises in the index often precede meaningful contractions in economic output, signalling trouble ahead for growth prospects.
The WUI increased from 41,383.2 in January 2025 to 122,422.5 in September 2025. Since then, it has been on a declining trend.
The dataset is refreshed on a quarterly schedule, with first-quarter figures released towards the end of April, second-quarter data in late July, third-quarter numbers in late October and fourth-quarter updates arriving in late January.
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