Images of Democrat presidential nominee Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump. (Image: Bloomberg)
5 years ago
Nov 03, 2020
The U.S. Presidential election being fought between incumbent Donald Trump ad Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden is likely to go down to the wire. Who wins, and how, will impact not just the world's largest economy but will have geo-political, trade and financial market implications. This is a selection of stories by BloombergQuint's editors to help you stay updated and understand the outcome and effects.
Asset managers, market researchers and investors are trying to gauge the impact on equities and other asset classes such as gold and bonds across the globe amid heightened volatility.
Here are views from UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management and Societe Generale Cross Asset Research.
In the 1,456 days since Donald Trump was elected president, corporate taxes were cut, a trade war was fought, the Covid-19 pandemic raged -- and the largest American companies added near $9 trillion in value.
Up 55% since Election Day 2016, the S&P 500’s return is the fourth-best for a first-term president, data compiled by Bloomberg show. It’s a feat that appeals to a president who has graded and flaunted his success using points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, often to the exclusion of other measures.
Numbers don’t lie, but deciding how much credit he deserves for the run is one of the most debated topics in markets.
Here’s what six investors have to say about the markets.
The election entered its final day on Tuesday with a record-shattering 100 million ballots already cast.
Polling stations on the U.S. East Coast started opening at 6 a.m. local time. The key states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania will be among the first to close, starting at 7 p.m.
Trump is planning to watch the results in Washington, while Biden will be in his home state of Delaware.
National surveys and polls of most key states give Biden the advantage, but Democrats scarred by Hillary Clinton’s unexpected defeat in 2016 have taken little solace from their candidate’s lead. The state on everyone’s mind is Pennsylvania, which could take days to count its votes and where Biden has a slight lead.
Why the choices for American voters couldn’t be more stark.
The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities. However, we see this outcome as neutral to slightly positive.
Dubravko Lakos, Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy, J.P. Morgan
Markets want to see a clear victory for either President Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden within a week of the Nov. 3 contest. If there’s a contested election, stocks could slide as much as 20%.
Read more on what BofA expects for stocks with in two election outcomes.
Already, the slightest fluctuations in the polls have reverberated in the stock market, especially after Biden took a clear lead in June.
Starting the night of Nov. 3 -- and possibly stretching over many more days as votes are tallied -- traders will be refreshing certain charts over and over to figure out what’s coming next.
President Trump needs a very large polling error to have a hope of winning the White House. Joe Biden would win even if polls were off by as much as they were in 2016.
A close election in 2020 could introduce a slew of new voting terms to Americans trying to figure out whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden won the presidency.
Read this for some of the more significant election-related terms this year.
A Biden-Harris Administration likely would forge an ‘Enlightened Trade Policy’, the tools of which would be consensus and integrity, and the goals for which would be peace and sustainability.
One common idea is that democracy is about more than voting. If election results are not to be undermined or overturned, democracy also requires a free media, a strong civil service, independent courts, a secure constitutional framework and — perhaps most important of all — a democratic culture in which the election losers will accept defeat.
All of these things used to be taken for granted in the U.S. But perhaps no longer.
