US And India CPI Data, ECB Rate Decision, Eight New IPOs — The Week Ahead

The second week of December will draw focus to key global macro developments while domestically, attention turns to the retail inflation print.

The European Central Bank will decide on its benchmark lending rate on Dec. 12. Retail inflation data from the US, India and China will be released, besides GDP numbers from the US, Japan, and UK.

On the primary market front, there will be plenty of activity with three mainline IPOs, including Vishal Mega Mart and Mobikwik. There are also five SME offerings set to open for public subscription.

Siddhartha Khemka, head of research in wealth management, at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., expects Nifty 50 to maintain its gradual upmove next week, driven by potential increase in banking liquidity post RBI's cut in cash reserve ratio, positive news flows around government policies and return of FII inflows.

Market Performance This Week

The NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex closed with marginal losses on Friday, dragged down by declines in the share prices of HDFC Bank Ltd. and Reliance Industries Ltd.

However, the Nifty 50 recorded its biggest weekly gain since early June. It has risen 2.27% in the week ended on Dec. 6. The BSE Sensex gained 2.39% in the week ended on Dec. 6.

The Nifty ended the session down by 39.05 points, or 0.16%, at 24,669.35, while the Sensex fell by 56.74 points, or 0.07%, closing at 81,709.12.

Among sectors, Nifty Realty gained the most this week, followed by Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Metal and Nifty Media. Nifty FMCG saw a decline.

Domestic Factors

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday, Dec. 12. Median estimates compiled by Bloomberg projects retail inflation in November at 5.54%.

The CPI rose to a 14-month high of 6.21% in October, compared to 5.49% in September.

The November data holds significance after second quarter GDP estimate showed sluggish growth, raising fears of stagflation.

The Index of Industrial Production data will also be announced on Thursday.

India's trade data including exports and imports will be released on Friday, Dec. 13. Bloomberg survey estimates a deficit of $23.8 billion in November, down from $27.14 billion seen in October.

Besides, the RBI will release the weekly foreign exchange data.

Global Factors

The US is expected to release its retail inflation figure as per the consumer price index on Wednesday, Dec. 11, followed by the weekly unemployment data on Thursday, Dec. 12.

The European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates by 25 bps at its next meeting on Dec. 12, as per Bloomberg. The overall tone of President Christine Lagarde's press conference is likely to be dovish.

Japan will release its September quarter GDP data on Dec. 9, followed by producer price index on Dec. 11 and industrial production data on Dec. 13.

China's November trade report, due on Dec. 10, is expected to show a slowdown in export growth following a strong performance in October, Bloomberg reported.

Export growth is expected to moderate to 7.8% year-on-year, down from 12.7% in October, but in line with the 7.4% growth seen in September and October combined. Imports are likely to have declined by 0.6% year-on-year, following a 2.3% drop in October.

IPOs, Listings Next Week

India's primary market will be buzzing in the upcoming week, while eight companies are scheduled to debut on the exchanges.

During the second week of December, IPOs of five small and medium enterprises will open, while three mainboard offerings are scheduled.

The big Rs 8,000 crore-IPO of Vishal Mega Mart Ltd. will be open between Dec. 11 and 13. The fashion-led hypermarket chain has set a price band of Rs 74 to Rs 78 apiece.

Other two mainboard IPOs include Sai Life Sciences Ltd. and One Mobikwik Systems Ltd.

In the SME segment, Supreme Facility Management Ltd. will launch its debut IPO on Dec. 11, aiming to raise Rs 50 crore. The price band for the issue is set between Rs 72 and 76 per share.

Property Share Investment Trust SM REIT will be listed on the BSE on Dec. 9. Shares of Nisus Finance Services Co. will debut on the BSE SME platform on Dec. 11, while Emerald Tyre Manufacturers Ltd. will be listed on the NSE SME platform on Dec. 12.