Sensex, Nifty Decline After Clocking Best Week In Two Years

NBFCs highly stressed; facing serious liquidity crunch, mainly because of asset-liability mismatch, says Corporate Affairs Secretary.

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— BloombergQuint (@BloombergQuint) November 5, 2018

Shares of the country's largest lender rose as much as 1.7 percent to Rs 290.20 ahead of its September quarter earnings. Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect State Bank of India's net profit to decline by 51 percent to Rs 775 crore.

SBI Q2FY19 Preview (Standalone, YoY)

• NII seen 14.9 percent higher at Rs 21,355 crore versus Rs 18,586 crore
• Higher interest cost, lower recoveries to dent NII growth

*Q2FY18 saw gains on sale of stake in its life insurance business

Shares of Adani Gas rose 20 percent on debut from base price of Rs 60 to Rs 72 post de-merger from Adani Enterprises.

The stock rose as much as 26 percent to Rs 75.60.

Shares of the Mumbai-based private lender rose as much as 3.76 percent to Rs 620.50 after its profit beat Bloomberg consensus estimates in September quarter.

Net profit rose 83 percent over last year to Rs 790 crore, according to its stock exchange filing. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg had pegged the profit at Rs 759 crore.

Other Highlights:

• NII up 15.3 percent at Rs 5,232.1 crore.
• Provisions at Rs 2,927.4 crore versus Rs 3,337.7 (QoQ).
• GNPA at 5.96 percent versus 6.52 percent (QoQ).
• NNPA at 2.54 percent vs 3.09 percent (QoQ).

Meanwhile, brokerages have maintained their buy call on the stock with Nomura, CLSA and Deutsche Bank Research expecting 23 percent upside from Friday’s closing price.

On Axis Bank

Nomura

• Maintained ‘Buy’; raised to Rs 750 from Rs 630, implying a potential upside of 23 percent from the last regular trade.
• Core performance improves along with stability in asset quality.
• Strong improvement in pre-provisioning operating profit trends.
• Valuations undemanding considering improving credit cycle and strong liability franchise.

Deutsche Bank Research

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 750, implying a potential upside of 23 percent from the last regular trade.
• Getting better; strong trends across all sectors.
• Asset quality improves; unrecognised stress book declines.
• Expect lower slippages and sharply lower credit costs.

CLSA

• Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 750 from Rs 690, implying a potential upside of 23 percent from the last regular trade.
• Key positive was moderation of slippage, lower non-NPLs and high coverage.
• Lower stressed loan formation and corporate de-risking encouraging.
• Tad disappointed with tepid CASA growth; uptick in Casa growth will be key.

On ONGC

JPMorgan

• Maintained ‘Overweight’ with a price target of Rs 265, implying a potential upside of 68 percent from the last regular trade.
• A strong quarter driven by sharply higher realisations.
• Rupee weakness, recent gas price hike should aid earnings further.
• Stock pricing in large subsidy burden.
• No dividend as company likely considering buy back.

IDFC Securities

• Maintained ‘Outperform’; raised price target to Rs 265 from Rs 255, implying a potential upside of 23 percent from the last regular trade.
• Another strong quarter, but oil output a miss; Highest profit in the last four years.
• Market overcompensating for near term uncertainty.
• Expect subsidy contribution of $6 a barrel for for the current and the next financial year; still expect EPS CAGR of 28 percent over FY18-20.

On Indian Oil Corp

CLSA

• Maintained ‘Sell’ with a price target of Rs 105, implying a potential downside of 29 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter results disappointed across all key parameters.
• Cut EPS estimates by 3-17 percent over FY19-21 to build in Q2 miss.
• Pressure on marketing along with GRM weakness should weigh on the stock.

Citi

• Maintained ‘Sell’ with a price target of Rs 120, implying a potential downside of 19 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter missed, primarily driven by weaker marketing and petchem performance and higher forex losses.
• Q2 GRMs in-line; December quarter performance is likely to be weaker.
• Remain cautious near-term as we enter election and winter season.

On NTPC

Deutsche Bank Research

• Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 190 from Rs 200, implying a potential upside of 20 percent from the last regular trade.
• Earnings miss on coal unavailability as well as capacity delays.
• Management targets to restrict coal under-recovery to Rs 600 crore in the next financial year.

Citi

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 203, implying a potential upside of 29 percent from the last regular trade.
• Fixed cost under-recoveries hurt September quarter’s profit.
• Management’s hope to solve underlying challenges may not happen to the extent.
• Management highlighted that coal availability is gradually improving post monsoons.

On Petronet LNG

Citi

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 290, implying a potential upside of 30 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter results were inline; higher payout a positive.
• Dahej utilisation remains robust, while Kochi is stable.
• Risk-reward remains compelling on earnings upsides, limited competition and compelling valuations.

Morgan Stanley

• Maintained ’Overweight’ with a price target of Rs 286, implying a potential upside of 28 percent from the last regular trade.
• Core earnings in line, but key surprise was higher special dividend.
• Believe India gas aggregators to benefit from rising gas competitiveness.
• See upside from demand as government lowers the pollution impact.

On Gujarat Gas

IDFC Securities

• Maintained ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 865 from Rs 875, implying a potential upside of 37 percent from the last regular trade.
• A miss on margins, growth prospects undiminished.
• Key positives: Record volumes.
• Key negatives: Higher than expected gas costs drag margins.

Elara Capital

• Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 916 from Rs 1,115 implying a potential upside of 45 percent from the last regular trade.
• Higher gas cost impacted margins.
• Volume recovery beat our expectation.
• Cut price target to factor lower margins on higher oil-linked gas cost.

On Godrej Consumer

CLSA

• Maintained ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 785 from Rs 950, implying a potential upside if 10 percent from the last regular trade.
• All round miss in September quarter; consolidated Ebitda was sharply below estimates.
• Improvement in household insecticides and Africa critical for the stock.
• Stock could be range-bound until the outlook improves.

Jefferies

• Maintained ‘Hold’; cut price target to Rs 740 from Rs 780, implying a potential upside of 4 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter review: Margin disappoints led by international business.
• Despite 25 percent stock correction from peak risk-reward remains unattractive.
• Continue to believe that the international business deserves lower multiple.

On Bharat Forge

CLSA

• Maintained ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 680 from Rs 735, implying a potential upside of 12 percent from the last regular trade.
• Strong September quarter, led by strong double-digit growth across domestic and export businesses.
• Management positive on new order wins in passenger vehicle and pick-up in India’s industrials.
• Stock unlikely to deliver much return if demand in trucks tapers off.

Deutsche Bank Research

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 820, implying a potential upside of 35 percent from the last regular trade.
• Strong growth continues; new revenue streams opening up.
• Expect revenue and EPS to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 12 percent and 16 percent respectively over FY18-21.

On Alkem Labs

HSBC

• Maintained ‘Hold’; cut price target to Rs 2,000 from Rs 2,100, implying a potential upside of 5 percent from the last regular trade.
• Muted India growth in September quarter due to impact of high base and weak seasonal pickup.
• India outlook intact for mid-teen sales growth medium term.
• U.S. growth hinges on new launches and traction in legacy products.

Nomura

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 2,089, implying a potential upside of 9 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter was lower than our estimates.
• Underlying growth in domestic business is slower.
• Ban of Fixed Dose Combinations to hit growth in the second half of the current financial year.

More Calls

Deutsche Bank Research on Power Finance Corp

• Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 115 from Rs 110, implying a potential upside of 23 percent from the last regular trade.
• Stable quarter marked by margin expansion and steady asset quality metrics.
• Disbursements driven by discoms/transcos; NIM/spreads improve.
• Exposure to IL&FS at Rs 2500 crore at SPV level.

Deutsche Bank Research on PNB

• Maintained ‘Hold’; cut price target to Rs 75 from Rs 80, implying a potential upside of 9 percent from the last regular trade.
• Slippage ratio remains elevated; another big loss quarter.
• Core banking business is weak and growth is lagging peers.
• Weak margin trajectory along with higher credits costs to result in sub-par RoEs.

Elara Capital on Gujarat State Petronet

• Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 244 from Rs 279, implying a potential upside of 35 percent from the last regular trade.
• Growth from higher tariff and volume.
• Transmission volume declined on a sequential basis on softening of power sector demand.
• Expect margins to improve on new tariff structure and volume growth.

CLSA on Godrej Properties

• Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 843 from Rs 1,097, implying a potential upside of 40 percent from the last regular trade.
• Results weaker than expected.
• Pre-sales down; expect recovery as launches pick-up.
• Cut price target to factor in rising borrowing cost, near-term risks and lower valuation multiple.

CLSA on Cadila Healthcare

• Maintained ‘Outperform’; cut price target to Rs 410 from Rs 460, implying a potential upside of 14 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter’s net profit declines, but was inline.
• U.S. revenue in the second half of the current financial year has multiple variables at play.
• Cut price target to factor in lower margins.

Citi on Apollo Hospitals

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 1,540, implying a potential upside of 34 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter to underline margin headroom; open positive catalyst watch.
• September quarter is seasonally strongest quarter and should better reflect operating leverage.
• Expect numbers to provide further conviction on turnaround.

CLSA on Sun TV

• Maintained ‘Buy’; cut price target to Rs 870 from Rs 1,100, implying a potential upside of 31 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter results a mixed bag; subscriptions growth led by Tamil Nadu.
• Investments to support ad-revenues.
• Still expect Sun TV to deliver 11 percent earnings CAGR over FY19-21.

CLSA on GSK Consumer

• Maintained ‘Buy’; raised price target to Rs 9,200 from Rs 8,700, implying a potential upside of 30 percent from the last regular trade.
• Another strong quarter; strong volume growth and margin expansion.
• Outcome of strategic review holds the key.
• Acquisition by a strong player could be a significant re-rating event.

Citi on SRF

• Maintained ‘Buy’; hike price target to Rs 2,508 from Rs 2,262, implying a potential upside of 28 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter reported strong revenue growth but margins compress.
• Revenue growth driven by capacity ramp-up in packaging films and volume uptick in chemical.
• Hike a price target to reflect earnings revision.

CLSA on Aditya Birla Fashion

• Maintained ‘Buy’; hike price target to Rs 232 from Rs 212, implying a potential upside of 21 percent from the last regular trade.
• Second consecutive quarter of margin expansion; operating leverage turning favourable.
• Strong operating leverage, store maturity and corrective steps taken in Madura led to margin expansion.
• Aggressive store additions and online strategy on track.

Citi on TCNS Clothing

• Maintained ‘Buy’ with a price target of Rs 780, implying a potential upside of 27 percent from the last regular trade.
• September quarter review: Strong margins offset weak SSSG.
• Management said that the demand is improving and December quarter revenues should see a strong uptick.
• Expect margin expansion with SSSG improving into festive season.

Deutsche Bank Research on Whirlpool India

• Maintained ‘Hold’ with a price target of Rs 1,390, implying a potential upside of 2 percent from the last regular trade.
• First Ebitda decline since 2015; weak revenues led the miss.
• Traded goods saw muted performance due to weak summers and excessive inventory.

Bulk Deals

• 8K Miles Software Services: IFCI sold 4.23 lakh shares or 1.39 percent equity at Rs 60.2 each.
• CG Power & Industrial Solutions: WGI Emerging Markets Smaller Companies Fund sold 45 lakh shares or 0.72 percent equity at Rs 36.65 each.

Sun TV Network (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 10.9 percent at Rs 749.6 crore.
• Net profit up 23.4 percent at Rs 351.3 crore.
• Ebitda up 11.7 percent at Rs 554.1 crore.
• Margin at 73.9 percent versus 73.4 percent.
• Other income at Rs 62.12 crore versus Rs 37.23 crore.

Torrent Pharma (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 33.7 percent at Rs 1,894 crore.
• Net Profit down 12 percent at Rs 179 crore.
• Ebitda up 44 percent at Rs 473 crore.
• Margin at 25 percent versus 23.2 percent.

Cadila Healthcare (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue down 8.1 percent at  Rs 2,961.2 crore.
• Net profit down 17 percent at Rs 417.5 crore.
• Ebitda down 19.7 percent at  Rs 687.8 crore.
• Margins at 23.2 percent versus 26.6 percent.

Tata Chemicals (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 10.1 percent at Rs 2,960.7 crore.
• Net profit down 1.8 percent at Rs 321.7 crore.
• Ebitda down 5.6 percent at Rs 602 crore.
• Margin at 20.3 percent versus 23.7 percent.

Bombay Stock Exchange (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue down 3 percent at Rs 115.2 crore.
• Net profit down 31.3 percent at Rs 45.9 crore.
• Ebitda down 70 percent at Rs 10.2 crore.
• Margin at 8.9 percent versus 28.6 percent.
• Employee costs at Rs 34.3 crore versus Rs 28.7 crore.

SAIL India (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 22.8 percent at Rs 16,718 crore.
• Net profit at Rs 553.7 crore versus net loss at Rs 539.1 crore.
• Ebitda up 158.8 percent at Rs 2,365 crore.
• Margin at 14.1 percent versus 6.7 percent.

Equitas Holdings (Q2, YoY)

• NII up 27 percent at Rs 277 crore.
• Net Profit up 4.6 times at Rs 49.7 crore.
• Advances up 36 percent at Rs 9,981 crore.
• Deposits up 90 percent at Rs 5,698 crore.

Power Finance Corporation (Q2, YoY)

• NII up 6.1 percent at Rs 2,735.3 crore.
• Net profit up 10.5 percent at Rs 1,355.1 crore.

Oracle Financial Services (Q2, QoQ)

• Revenue down 9.8 percent at Rs 1,213.3 crore.
• Net profit down 12.4 percent at Rs 352 crore.
• Ebitda down 20.1 percent at Rs 498.8 crore.
• Margins at 41.1 percent versus 46.4 percent.

JSW Energy (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 18.6 percent at Rs 2,430.8 crore.
• Net profit up 6.4 percent at Rs 316 crore.
• Ebitda down 2.4 percent at Rs 861.4 crore.
• Margin at 35.4 percent versus 43 percent.

JK Cement (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue down 0.6 percent at  Rs 1,100.62 crore.
• Net profit down 30.5 percent at  Rs 64.69 crore.
• Ebitda down 18.1 percent at Rs 169.76 crore.
• Margin at 15.4 percent versus 18.7 percent.

Godfrey Phillips India (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue down 2.7 percent at Rs 629.8 crore.
• Net profit up 19.7 percent at Rs 70.4 crore.
• Ebitda up 29.3 percent at Rs 117.4 crore.
• Margin at 18.6 percent versus 14 percent.

Gabriel (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 15 percent to Rs 5,415 crore.
• Net profit up 9 percent to Rs 289 crore.
• Ebitda up 13 percent to Rs 515 crore.
• Ebitda margin at 9.5 percent versus 9.6 percent.

VRL Logistics (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 14.4 percent at Rs 516.9 crore.
• Net profit down 4.4 percent at Rs 20.6 crore.
• Ebitda down 3.1 percent at Rs 54.1 crore.
• Margin at 10.4 percent versus 12.3 percent.

Relaxo Footwears (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 18.5 percent at Rs 545.2 crore.
• Net profit up 23 percent at Rs 39.5 crore.
• Ebitda up 19.6 percent at Rs 73.5 crore.
• Margin at 13.5 percent versus 13.4 percent.

Gujarat Gas (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 40.8 percent at Rs 20,13.83 crore.
• Net Profit down 33 percent at Rs 41.07 crore.
• Ebitda down 21 percent at Rs 160.73 crore.
• Margin At 8 percent versus 14.2 percent.
• Board recommends stock split in the ratio 1:5.

Gujarat State Petronet (Q2, YoY)

• Revenue up 79 percent at Rs 598 crore.
• Net profit up 83 percent at Rs 323 crore.
• Ebitda up 80.8 percent at Rs 516 crore.
• Margin at 86.3 percent versus 85.3 percent.
• Growth led by pipeline tariff hike implemented in September quarter.

Nifty Earnings To Watch

• GAIL (India)
• Cipla
• Power Grid Corporation Of India
• State Bank of India

Other Earnings To Watch

• Allcargo Logistics
• APL Apollo Tubes
• Asahi India Glass
• Balkrishna Industries
• Bosch
• Century Plyboards (India)
• Eveready Industries India
• Exide Industries
• Himatsingka Seide
• ICDS
• Indraprastha Gas
• Inox Wind
• Natco Pharma
• Orient Cement
• PNB Housing Finance
• Sheela Foam

• CIC issues show-cause notice to RBI governor
• Buffett’s buying shows growing appetite for stocks
• RBI kick-starts process to set up registry for capturing details of borrowers
• Petrol price cut again, total reduction reaches Rs 4.05 in 18 days
• Delay in Ram temple construction making hindus anxious, says BJP
• SBI puts 11 NPA accounts for sale to recover Rs 1,019 crore
• How Asian firms attract – and keep – top women executives
• How Dream11 is cashing in on India’s growing love for fantasy sports
• The $6 trillion barrier holding electric cars back

Here are some key events coming up this week:

• U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil flows go back into effect Monday.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping addresses the country’s first International Import Expo.
• EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier delivers a speech on Brexit to the Grandes Conférences Catholiques in Brussels.
• On Tuesday, U.S. mid-term elections will determine whether Republicans keep control of Congress, and set the stage for Trump’s 2020 re-election bid.
• Reserve Bank of Australia November policy decision Tuesday.
• Federal Reserve policy makers are expected to leave the main interest rate unchanged Thursday at their penultimate gathering of 2018.
• The Bank of Japan releases a summary of opinions from its Oct. 30-31 policy meeting.
• Trump plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of Armistice Day celebrations Nov. 11.