Bad loans of Indian banks are expected to decline 90 basis points to less than 5% in FY 2023 and hit a decadal low of sub-4% by Mar. 31, 2024, said an Assocham-Crisil Rating study unveiled on Thursday.
The study attributed the decline in gross Non-Performing Assets to the post-Covid economic recovery and higher credit growth.
It said the biggest improvement would be in the corporate loan segment, where gross NPAs are seen falling below 2% in the next fiscal from a peak of about 16% as on Mar. 31, 2018.
"This follows significant clean-up of books by banks in recent years, as well as strengthened risk management and underwriting, which has led to higher preference for borrowers with better credit profiles. The steady improvement in corporate asset quality is clearly manifested in key indicators such as the credit quality of bank exposures," Assocham Secretary General Deepak Sood said.
He observed that the twin balance sheet problem has largely been addressed, creating a situation where the credit growth has started to move up significantly.
"Our banking sector is quite robust even in the midst of continuing global challenges," Sood opined.
The study noted that the gross NPAs in the MSME segment, which suffered the most during the pandemic, may rise to 10-11% by March 2024 from about 9.3% as on March 31, 2022.
While relief measures did help contain asset quality deterioration last fiscal, the segment saw the most restructuring, at about 6%, compared with 2% for the overall banking sector, it revealed.
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