Trade Calculations Being Overturned By Tariff Volatility, Says Jaishankar

Trade calculations are "being overturned by tariff volatility", External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on Monday, while speaking at the inaugural Aravalli Summit at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi on Monday.

The foreign minister's remarks come amid tariffs as high as 50% imposed on Indian goods by the United States, even as the two sides are locked in prolonged negotiations to hammer out a trade deal.

Jaishankar, while commenting on the global landscape, said one must reflect on the "intensity of the transformation and their implications". He observed that a third of global manufacturing has now concentrated in a "single geography", creating fragile supply chains and heightening strategic risks.

The growing wave of anti-globalisation sentiment, he said, is disrupting old models of interdependence that once defined global trade. The changing energy landscape, with the US emerging as a major fossil fuel exporter and China as a renewable energy powerhouse, has only deepened these fault lines, he underlined.

Jaishankar also touched upon the emergence of "competing models on the harnessing of data and evolution of artificial intelligence which jostle with each other", while adding that the Big Tech has "become a significant player in itself.”

The minister also drew attention to rising competition for rare earths and critical minerals, alongside stricter technology controls. According to him, even the nature of warfare has evolved — becoming more “stand-off, more impactful and definitely more risk-prone” due to technological advances.

On global trade ties, Jaishankar noted that “cost is no longer the defining criteria for economic transactions; ownership and security are equally so.” With concentrated production and limited supply chains increasing end-to-end risks, he said nations are now reassessing old alliances and renegotiating understandings in pursuit of self-reliance and strategic autonomy.

“The world is witnessing more competition and less compacts,” he observed. “The needle has shifted towards an intersection of interests and away from the promise of cooperation.” He described the emerging era as one defined by “the weaponisation of everything”, where nations are more willing to use every tool at their disposal to gain leverage.

Despite this volatility, Jaishankar expressed confidence in India's capacity to navigate the turbulence. While many countries are struggling to cope, he said, India must focus on “strategising and continuing to rise amidst such volatility.”