Q3 Results, CPI Inflation, IPO Action And More—Top Five Triggers For Sensex, Nifty This Week

The week ahead promises intense action on D-Street packed with domestic events, primary market buzz, corporate action, and some major global cues, which will keep investors busy after Indian equities navigated the first full trading week of 2026 with caution amid new geopolitical tensions.

D-Street will witness trading action this week as shares of Bharat Coking Coal, subsidiary of the world's largest state-owned coal producer, will debut on stock exchanges after its initial public offering and several blue-chips such as TCS, HCL Tech, HDFC Bank, among others will declare their October-December quarter results for the current fiscal (Q3FY26).

The progress on India-US trade deal negotiations and Trump tariff rates are likely to influence movement in the domestic market this week. Trading activity of foreign investors would also influence the overall trend.

''Looking ahead, clarity on global trade dynamics and Q3 earnings will shape market direction. Volatility is likely to persist in the near term, particularly in US exposed companies and sectors such as metals and oil & gas,'' said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.

Strong domestic fundamentals, resilient GDP growth and robust credit trends, could underpin selective buying where earnings prospects remain favourable. FII flows and currency movements will act as key monitorable.

Domestic equity benchmarks Nifty and Sensex logged their worst week in over three months. The indices fell nearly 1% intra-day on Friday, Jan. 9. The frontline indices dropped over 2.5% last week, logging its worst week since the week ended Sept. 22, 2025. Nifty closed 193.55 points or 0.75% lower at 25,683.30, while Sensex settled 604.72 points or 0.72% down at 83,576.24. ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank led the decline on Friday.

Analysts noted that the week began on a muted note as expectations of higher government borrowing drove bond yields upward, though strong GST collections and healthy bank credit growth provided some support.

Market sentiment, however, weakened further amid global headwinds, including the Venezuela–US standoff, concerns over Russian oil imports, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and continued FII outflows.

Profit-booking in autos, metals, and oil & gas weighed on indices, while selective buying in consumer durables, on hopes of a demand revival, offered brief respite. Fears of additional levies under Russian sanctions overshadowed the optimism around Q3 earnings recovery.

As many as 111 companies are scheduled to announce their third-quarter results this week. Financial performance, revenue growth, margins and key business trends will be closely tracked. Some of the major companies that will remain under investors' radar on Q3 results include HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Asset Management Company, ICICI Prudential, Reliance Industries, Tata Technologies, Wipro, among others.

India's retail inflation or consumer price index-based inflation data for December 2025 will likely be declared on Monday, Jan. 12, post market hours. Other key domestic macroeconomic indicators such as monthly trade deficit data, forex reserves, bond yields, and the movement of rupee against the US dollar will also be closely tracked by market participants.

Last week, Trump approved a bipartisan Russian sanctions bill threatening steep tariffs, up to 500%, on major buyers of Russian oil. Lingering uncertainty surrounding the India-US trade deal dampened investor confidence, as markets remain watchful for concrete progress.

According to Vinod Nair of Geojit Financials, any positive outcome from India–US trade deal or easing tariff concerns could spark a short-term rebound. ''Markets are expected to stay range-bound with a mixed bias, looking to balance external risks and domestic fundamentals,'' added Nair.

Bharat Coking Coal IPO will close for subscription on Jan. 13. The Rs 1,300-crore issue is entirely an offer for sale, under which promoter Coal India Ltd. will sell up to 46.57 crore equity shares. The allotment of shares to IPO investors will be done tentatively on Jan. 14. It will debut on BSE and NSE on Jan. 16.

Apart from Trump tariffs, investors will closely track developments related to the US-Venezuela crisis and Ukraine war to assess the geopolitical risk premium on equities and commodities. US stocks kicked off 2026 on a strong note, but may face turbulence ahead with the start of corporate earnings season, inflation data and the geopolitical uncertainty.

Major Wall Street banks will kick off the fourth-quarter earnings season in the coming week. JPMorgan Chase, the largest US lender, reports earnings on Jan. 10, with Citigroup, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs later in the week.

Global investors have not understood the full picture of the US economy because the 43-day government shutdown late last year, that delayed or canceled key reports, with data flow now returning to normal.

That could raise the stakes for Tuesday's release of December's US CPI inflation. It will be one of the last key releases before the US Federal Reserve's next monetary policy meeting at the end of January.