India's economic growth is likely to be below 7 percent this fiscal, say experts, citing GST disruption and lingering impact of note ban. The Indian economy grew 7.1 percent in fiscal 2017, against 8 percent in FY16.
The Central Statistics Office is scheduled to release its advance estimates of national income 2017-18 on Friday.
“It is difficult for GDP to cross 7 percent this fiscal unless the base is revised downwards. The economy is expected to do well in the third and fourth quarter,” SBI Research Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh told PTI. GDP growth would be 6.5 percent on an unchanged base last year, he added.
Elaborating further, Ghosh said the growth could be higher if last year's expansion is revised downwards because a lower base last fiscal would result in higher growth for 2017-18.
Echoing similar views, former Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said the GDP growth would be around 6.2 percent to 6.3 percent for the current fiscal.
Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank, said the gross value added growth would be 6.6-6.8 percent for the current fiscal.
We have not factored in tax collections in the current fiscal. But if the tax collections remain robust then the GDP growth could be higher.Saugata Bhattacharya, Chief Economist, Axis Bank
The GVA is a new concept introduced by the CSO to measure the performance of the economy. The GDP is tabulated by adding taxes to the GVA after reducing subsidies from that.
Former Planning Commission member and senior economist Abhijit Sen said GDP growth would be in the range of 6 percent to 6.5 percent this fiscal, citing glitches on tax collection front after the Goods and Services Tax rollout.
He was skeptical about buoyancy in the latest PMI data and other numbers used for showing rosy picture of state of economy at this point of time.
Also Read: Fitch Lowers India's FY18 GDP Growth Forecast
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