How a Secretive Conclave Decides When U.S. Recessions Happen

(Bloomberg) --
Whether the U.S. tips into recession this year or not, chances are you won't hear about it until well after it happens. That's because the decision on whether the economy is in a serious slump or merely having a bad day rests with a little-known group of academics who deliberate behind the scenes. Ten years after the economy entered the worst downturn since the Great Depression, the group's chair, Stanford University professor Robert Hall, gives Dan and Scott an inside look into how the panel makes its calls -- and shares his thoughts on whether another recession could be in store soon.

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To contact the author of this story: Daniel Moss in New York at dmoss@bloomberg.net.

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