High US Salaries, No Green Card Certainty: The Financial Calculation Facing Indian H-1B Families

On 8 October, the US Department of Labor suspended Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro, HCL Technologies and Capgemini from PERM (Program Electronic Review Management, the labour certification an employer must obtain before filing a Green Card petition), citing alleged fraud and concerns about the displacement of American workers. The decision has caused considerable alarm among Indian technology professionals. Some are calling it the end of the American dream, and others are already talking about returning to India.

Before drawing conclusions from the headlines, it is important to separate the noise from the real impact and examine what has actually happened. Existing H-1B visas are not cancelled and the suspension does not apply to every employer. If you work at one of the eight companies and your case has not reached the relevant milestones, you have a serious problem; however, most Indian H-1B holders are not directly affected by this action.

My view is that it is getting difficult to continue living in the US on temporary status, and we should expect more such announcements from the US administration. To what extent such measures are legally enforceable remains to be seen, but they are powerful enough to create uncertainty. They discourage people on temporary status, and they discourage employers from hiring foreign workers. That is the real impact, and it will be felt well beyond the eight named companies..

The Salary Premium

Most people stay for one reason, the money. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a median annual wage of $135,980 for software developers in May 2025. Levels.fyi, a self-reported compensation database, puts median software-engineer total compensation at about $197,000 in the United States and about Rs 30.6 lakh in India.

These are not like-for-like numbers, since taxes, housing, healthcare, education and equity all differ, and senior people in India earn far more than the median. Even so, a few more years of US income can fund a child's education or clear a home loan in India, which is why "just come back" is easier said than done.

The Green Card Queue

The October 2026 Visa Bulletin shows India's final-action date at 1 November 2013 for EB-2 (the advanced-degree or exceptional-ability category) and 1 January 2014 for EB-3 (the skilled-worker category). This is not a waiting-time guarantee. It only means that final approval of a Green Card is available to applicants whose priority dates are earlier than these cut-offs. Even so, those dates are now almost thirteen years old, which shows how far behind the line already is.

Nearly one million Indians, including dependants, are stuck in that queue, and it keeps growing. Now consider what that means for someone joining the queue today. A September 2026 analysis by the National Foundation for American Policy projects that, under current law, a new Indian applicant entering in January 2026 would wait 179 years in EB-2 and 38 years in EB-3. These are projections, not predictions, but even a fraction of those numbers shows how badly demand has outrun the quota.

Does that make PERM and an approved I-140 (the employer's immigrant petition for you) useless? No. They hold your priority date and, when the legal conditions are met, allow H-1B extensions beyond six years. In practice, what they give you is the right to keep working in the US, not a Green Card any time soon.

AI and Job Risk

If you build, deploy or govern complex systems, the US is still where the research and the capital are, and the opportunity is real. If your work is routine or entry-level, you are more exposed.

A layoff also puts your visa at risk. The current grace period is up to 60 days or until your authorised stay ends, whichever is shorter, and the administration has proposed removing it, although that is not yet a rule. So a layoff can cost you your salary and your status in the same month.

Returning to India

Many people will now face a dilemma: continue working in the US for a higher salary and better growth, or move back to India and be done with the stress and uncertainty.

India now offers far stronger technology careers than it did a decade ago. Global capability centres, product companies and start-ups can offer meaningful leadership opportunities, and family considerations or repeated immigration shocks may outweigh the salary advantage of remaining abroad.

However, a mass return should not be assumed from one policy announcement. A professional with a strong US role, an approved I-140, a defensible priority date and high-demand AI skills may rationally continue. Someone whose employer has not started the Green Card process, whose role is vulnerable to automation or whose children face age-related immigration issues may reach a different conclusion.

For Indian families, the decision comes down to two numbers: the after-tax savings advantage of staying, and what an involuntary exit would cost in delayed family decisions, lost career mobility and disrupted education.

EB-5 as an Alternative

Given all the uncertainty around the H-1B, more and more H-1B holders are now opting for EB-5. It does not depend on an employer, and India's reserved EB-5 categories are current in the October 2026 Visa Bulletin.

Concurrent filing also lets eligible applicants already in the US file the EB-5 petition (Form I-526E) and the Green Card application (Form I-485, adjustment of status) together. Once the I-485 is filed, you and your family can apply for a work permit (Employment Authorization Document, or EAD) and a travel permit (advance parole), so you can work for any employer and travel abroad while the case is pending. For someone who could lose both job and visa within 60 days of a layoff, that is a very different position to be in.

However, it is important to understand that EB-5 is a capital decision. The minimum investment is presently $800,000 for a targeted employment area (TEA) project, the money must come from lawful sources, and job-creation and immigration requirements must be met. If you have to stretch your balance sheet to fund it, you are simply replacing an immigration risk with a financial one.

Four Questions to Ask

Before reacting to the headline, answer these four questions.
1.    Immigration position: Has PERM been filed or approved, is there an approved I-140, and which rights depend on your present employer?
2.    Job security: How exposed is your role to restructuring or AI, and how quickly could you find another sponsor?
3.    Family timetable: Do a spouse's career, your children's age, their education or a home purchase create deadlines that the Visa Bulletin will not solve?
4.    Finances: How much liquidity do you have, how much does the US still help you save, and can you consider another route without taking unsuitable risk?

Conclusion

The PERM suspension will have little immediate effect on most Indian H-1B holders and a concentrated effect on some at the eight named employers. My expectation is that more announcements like this will follow, and each one will make temporary status feel less secure. The US may well still offer the stronger earning opportunity, and if you have a secure role, an approved I-140 and in-demand skills, you are best placed to use it. If you do not, start planning your options now, while the choice is still yours.

Paresh Karia is a Chartered Accountant, former private banker and Global Investment Migration Strategist with over two decades of experience across banking, cross-border planning and immigration.