BOJ Is Said to Lean Toward Holding Key Rate At March Meeting

Bank of Japan officials are leaning toward keeping interest rates unchanged this month after their hike in January and as growing uncertainties in the global economy require close attention, according to people familiar with the matter.

Officials see no need to rush after the central bank raised rates to 0.5% from 0.25% at their January meeting and want to assess the impact first, the people said. They're also closely monitoring how US policies will affect both domestic and global economies, the people added.

No final decision has been made ahead of the March 18-19 gathering, and authorities will review all available data up until the last minute.

Those views indicate the BOJ isn't leaning toward an early move at least for now, in contrast to growing speculation in the market that the next hike may come sooner rather than later. While there's little expectation for a move this month, traders see a roughly 20% chance of a rate increase by May according to overnight-indexed swaps, the odds doubling since shortly after the January policy decision. 

The yen touched a five-month high Thursday after a labor union report on their demand for pay increases boosted market expectations for a rate hike. Japanese workers called for the largest boost to wages since 1993 in ongoing pay negotiations according to Rengo, Japan's biggest umbrella group for labor unions. 

BOJ officials see that strong push for wage increases boosting the likelihood that pay hikes this year will be around the same level as last year's, which were the highest in three decades, the people said. That would be within their expectations, they said. 

Some officials continue to see risks on the upside for inflation, much as the BOJ stated in its January outlook report, according to the people. There is a view that a rate hike at the meeting ending May 1 may be justified, they said, although downside risks for the economy may be increasing due to rising global trade tensions.  

In a survey shortly after the January meeting, more than half the economists expected the next hike to come in July, with none expecting a March move.