Asian equities extended their rebound as investors rotated back into stocks on optimism that the Iran war may be nearing a conclusion. Oil dropped.
Stocks opened stronger in Japan and South Korea, sending the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 0.5%. The moves came after the S&P 500 Index rose 0.7% Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.2% on expectations that an end to the war will improve crude oil flows from the Middle East and support economic growth.
Brent crude dropped more than 1% to trade around $100 a barrel, while an index of the dollar fell 0.1%.
The broadly risk-on moves reflected easing concerns over a prolonged Middle East conflict, which has roiled financial markets and pushed several equity gauges into correction territory over the past five weeks. Investor focus will turn to President Donald Trump's address to the nation at 9 p.m. Eastern Time, as confidence builds that the US may soon scale back its military action against Iran and help ease geopolitical tensions.
"The sharp rally in stocks over the past 24 hours demonstrates how a resolution to the conflict, or hopes thereof, may quickly drive markets higher," said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. "We continue to believe global stock markets will end the year higher than they are today."
In other corners of the market, gold built on its gains to trade just under $4,800 an ounce. Treasuries registered a lumpy session with the 10-year ending Wednesday little changed, its 30-year equivalent rallying and the two-year edging lower following solid data on the US labor market and retail sales.
Trump is scheduled to deliver a rare prime-time address even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The US leader is expected to hail his military campaign in Iran as a success and stress that the conclusion of operations may come in two to three weeks, according to a White House official.
Hours ahead of that speech, the Iranian president took the unusual step of issuing a letter addressed to Americans, arguing that his country has no enmity with the US and has acted in self-defense. He warned that "continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before" and noted that attacks on infrastructure directly target the Iranian people.
Trump said on Wednesday that Iran has asked for a ceasefire, adding that the US would only consider it if the Strait of Hormuz was reopened. Iran's foreign ministry said the claim of a ceasefire request was "false and baseless," according to state TV.
The latest back-and-forth follows separate comments from Trump on Tuesday when the president said he foresaw the US ending the conflict within two to three weeks, sparking a sharp rally in stocks.
Elsewhere, tariff concerns resurfaced as the Trump administration prepares a 25% levy on finished goods made with imported steel and aluminum, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, some investors said it would take time for oil flows to return to normal even if the war ends within Trump's timeframe, especially given the damage to some energy facilities. Trump's team has also suggested that reopening the strait, which carries 20% of global crude, may not be necessary to end the hostilities.
"Each passing week increases the global economic costs of the Iran conflict," wrote Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co. At some point, "the economic effects of persistent disruptions will start to build, with recessionary implications for the global economy."
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 9:02 a.m. Tokyo time
- Hang Seng futures were little changed
- Japan's Topix rose 1%
- Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 3%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.1590
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.69 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was unchanged at 6.8774 per dollar
- The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6922
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $68,101.43
- Ether fell 0.2% to $2,139.71
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.32%
- Australia's 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.96%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.4% to $98.72 a barrel
- Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,780.80 an ounce
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