Power Shortages Will Restrict 40% Of AI Data Centres By 2027: Research

Artificial intelligence and generative AI are driving rapid increases in electricity consumption, with data centre forecasts over the next two years reaching as high as 160% growth. As a result, almost 40% of existing AI data centres will be operationally constrained by power availability by 2027, according to a forecast by research and consulting firm Gartner Inc.

The growth of new hyperscale data centres to implement gen AI is creating power demands that will exceed the ability of utility providers to expand their capacity fast enough, Gartner said. This can disrupt energy availability and lead to shortages, which will limit the growth of new data centres for gen AI and other uses from 2026.

Gartner estimates the power required for data centres to run incremental AI-optimised servers will reach 500 terawatt-hours per year in 2027, which is 2.6 times the level in 2023. New data centres are being planned to handle huge amounts of data needed to train and implement large language models. However, short-term power shortages are likely to continue as new power transmission, distribution and generation capacity could take years to come online.

The inevitable result of impending power shortages is an increase in the price of power, which will also increase the costs of operating LLMs, according to Gartner. The cost will increase as operators use economic leverage to secure needed power. These costs will be passed on to AI/gen AI product and service providers.

Zero-carbon sustainability goals will also be negatively affected by short-term solutions to provide more power, as rising demand is forcing suppliers to increase production by any means possible. In some cases, this means keeping fossil fuel plants that had been scheduled for retirement in operation beyond their scheduled shutdown. Increased data centre use may lead to increased CO2 emissions to generate the needed power in the short-term, according to Gartner.

Data centres require 24/7 power availability, which renewable power such as wind or solar cannot provide without some form of alternative supply during periods when not generating power. Reliable 24/7 power can be generated by either hydroelectric, fossil fuel or nuclear power plants. In the long term, new technologies for improved battery storage (such as sodium-ion batteries) or clean power (small nuclear reactors) may become available and help achieve sustainability goals.