Omicron Virulence Study in South African Epicenter to Be Completed by Tuesday
(Bloomberg) -- Scientists working with the provincial government of Gauteng, the South African province that's the epicenter of the outbreak of the omicron coronavirus variant, aim to complete a study into its virulence by Tuesday.
The province, South Africa's most populous, has been in focus since the government and scientists it's working with said on Nov. 25 that the new variant had been identified in samples from the area. That roiled global markers and saw travel bans imposed on southern Africa.
“Is this variant less virulent? We don't have the answers to that yet,” said Bruce Mellado, the chairman of the Gauteng Premier's Advisory Committee, in an interview Thursday. “Our advisory committee is doing it as we speak. We will most likely have a presentation to the command council, behind closed doors, on Tuesday.”
The results of the study would later be released to the public, said Mellado, who is a professor at Johannesburg's University of The Witwatersrand, who uses mathematical modeling to predict the trajectory of infections.
About 15 million people live in Gauteng and the province is home to Johannesburg, the country's biggest city, and Pretoria, the capital.
Lower Deaths
So far hospitalizations and mortality are lower than expected, he said.
In the week ended Nov. 21 the number of excess deaths, a measure of deaths measured against an historical average, in Gauteng were 62 below normal, according to a report from the South African Medical Research Council.
Excess deaths are seen as a more accurate measure of the true impact of Covid-19 than official deaths. Since the pandemic began South Africa's official deaths from the disease stand at about 90,000, a third of the excess death total.
“We are very surprised,” he said, adding that earlier infections and vaccinations may have given some protection as cases surge. “Even if this strain is less virulent it will still bring death and suffering to lots of people.”
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