What’s Next? South Korea Braces for Expanded Japan Export Curbs

(Bloomberg) --

As Asian markets slid on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he'll impose more tariffs on China, another trade spat between Japan and South Korea is escalating.

Japan confirmed Friday it will remove South Korea from a list of trusted export destinations, which would expand the number of restricted materials used by South Korean makers of OLED screens, televisions and semiconductors. The new list comes a month after Japan imposed export curbs on three key materials used in Korea's chip industry.

“Some of the products to be removed from the white list could become a problem, such as blank masks or shadow masks -- products that Japanese makers monopolize,” said Yoon Joonwon, a fund manager at HDC Asset Management. “Many people don't expect Samsung will shut down its plants because of this, but if the removal from the white list takes effect, there will be a Korea risk premium for investors.”

South Korea's two tech giants, Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., are already struggling with the earlier export restrictions. Shares of Samsung fell as much as 2% in Seoul on Friday, while SK Hynix dropped as much as 3%.

Read more: South Korea, Taiwan Feel Electronics Slide in Trade Tracker

Tensions between the two countries have been flaring over whether Japan has sufficiently compensated Koreans who suffered under Japan's 1910-45 occupation of the peninsula.

On the flip side, South Korean suppliers have been benefiting from the trade scrap. Samsung will keep pushing ahead with a plan to use more local suppliers, even if the dispute with Japan is resolved, said Kyung-Min Kim, an analyst at Hana Financial Investment.

Shares of Foosung Co. surged more than 60% in July on expectations that the firm will win more contracts from Samsung. APS Holdings Corp., which makes shadow masks for OLED panels, jumped 31%. Foosung gained as much as 6.2% Friday, while APS rose 8.1%.

Even so, most of the top 20 items needed for South Korea's technology industry are highly dependent on Japanese suppliers, such as scrap steel, medical equipment, plastics and some chemical products, according to SK Securities. Another major worry is chip-making equipment, which is dominated by Japanese firms, the broker said.

“The problem is most of the components and materials that we need are heavily dependent on Japanese suppliers,” said Hyo-jin Kim, strategist at SK Securities. “Korean products imported into Japan are not that value-added or critically important for Japanese makers.”

The latest trade tensions add to the problems facing South Korea, which is already ailing from the U.S.-China trade war. The export-driven economy, a bellwether for global trade, posted a slump in exports for eight straight months for July, marked by a decline in demand from China and falling prices for semiconductors.

Analysts may cut estimates for earnings and economic growth in Korea if the feud drags on, according to SK Securities. Analysts have already slashed their earnings-per-share estimates for the next 12 months by the most since 2009, pushing up valuations of the Kospi index to its highest since 2016.

“A comprehensive resolution between the two countries seems a long shot,” Marie Kim, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a Aug. 1 note. “We still think the two countries would reach some resolution, even partially, by the first quarter of 2020 at the latest. In the meantime, the negative impact could hurt not only specific industries but spread to other industries.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Heejin Kim in Seoul at hkim579@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Lianting Tu at ltu4@bloomberg.net, Teo Chian Wei

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