Stock Recommendations Today: RBI Repo Rate Cut, Banks, And Steel Companies On Brokerages' Radar

CLSA believes there's room for further rate cuts ranging from 25–50 basis points in the entirety of the fiscal, after the Reserve Bank of India on Friday announced a 50 basis point cut in the repo rate, to 5.5%. Morgan Stanley says the action was front-loaded, and expects a pause in policy.

Morgan Stanley also stated that current steel prices and spreads are unsustainable, and expects imports to rise henceforth.

NDTV Profit tracks what analysts are saying about various stocks and sectors. Here are the analyst calls to keep an eye out for on Monday.

Nomura On Firstsource Solutions

• Maintains 'buy' call with a target price of Rs 390.

• Deal wins give strong growth visibility in fiscal 2026.

• Company has issued guidance for 12-15% yearly growth in revenue.

• Firstsource has achieved a $1 billion annual revenue run-rate a year ahead.

• Company has runway to expand margins to15% over the medium term.

• Tech spends would rise on account of generative AI.

Morgan Stanley On Steel Companies

• Domestic steel prices still at premium as compared to import parity.

• Morgan Stanley expects imports to rise henceforth.

• China steel supply reforms have supported stock performance.

• Steel stocks are up year-to-date, fueled by strong domestic demand and interim import safeguard duties.

• Current steel prices and spreads are unsustainable.

On RBI's 50 Basis Points Rate Cut

CLSA

• RBI delivered an above-consensus 50 basis points rate cut, repo now at 5.5%.

• RBI cut CRR by 100 basis points in four tranches till Nov. 2025, adding Rs 2.5 lakh crore in liquidity by Dec. 2025.

• Emphasis on stimulating domestic demand and investment.

• Real GDP in the current fiscal stands at 6.5%, while quarterly estimates in for the next four quarters stand at 6.5%, 6.7%, 6.6%, and 6.3%.

• Guidance cut by 90 basis points for the first quarter to 2.9%, and by 50 basis points for the second quarter to 3.4%.

• Brokerage sees room for further rate cuts ranging from 25–50 basis points in the entirety of the fiscal.

JPMorgan

• Rate cuts and liquidity front-loaded to boost transmission.

• Believes that the current policy rate of 5.50% is the terminal rate.

• RBI reduces inflation forecast from 4% to 3.7% for 2025-26

• There are still modest downside risks to the inflation forecast.

Goldman Sachs

• RBI has signaled the end of the easing cycle.

• Forecast headline inflation around 3.5% yearly in second half of 2025.

• Adverse base effects will likely drive inflation to 4.5% by mid-2026.

• RBI may not want the ex-ante real rate below 1% when the growth outlook is balanced.

HSBC

• Repo and CRR cut, a package to add liquidity, supports the banking sector NIMs.

• HSBC forecasts a pause in the August and October meetings.

• Growth in fiscal 2026 will be lower than RBI's 6.5% forecast.

• RBI is using this opportunity to raise structural credit growth and potential GDP growth.

Jefferies

• Banks are expected to now cut deposit rates.

• Bank earnings cut is estimated to be around 2% basis policy for fiscal 2026.

• Jefferies added Bandhan Bank to its model portfolio.

Macquarie

• Macquarie calls the policy dovish and pro-growth.

• Inflation expectation have been revised downwards by 30 basis points to 3.7%, owing to softening of food and commodity prices.

• As per the brokerage, the CRR cut will aid margins by five to six basis points, but margins will be offset by the repo rate cut.

Morgan Stanley

• Morgan Stanley says the action was front-loaded, injecting Rs 2.5 lakh crore liquidity by December.

• Brokerage expects inflation to average around 3.5% in the current fiscal and expects a pause in the August policy.

Jefferies On Internet Strategy

• Overall discounting has been consistently going up and this is across platforms.

• Higher discounts signalling increased e-grocery competition.

• Monthly active users continue to grow rapidly for quick commerce players.

• Blinkit and JioMart saw accelerated monthly active user growth, while Zepto slowed down.

• JioMart topped app downloads with over 100% growth.

Morgan Stanley On Kaynes Tech

• Morgan Stanley maintains 'equal-weight' with a target price of Rs 6,155 apiece.

• Promoter sold a 1.8% stake worth Rs 600 crore primarily to invest in building a large scale educational and science exploration centre.

• Company has no plans to sell its stakes for the next five years.

• Reiterated revenue guidance of $1 billion by fiscal 2028.

• Management expects fiscal 2026 exports share of 15%, as compared to 10% in fiscal 2025.

Morgan Stanley On JSW Energy

• Maintains 'overweight' with a target price of Rs 608, implying a 16% potential upside.

• Company announced commissioning of 281MW renewable energy capacity (215MW solar and 66MW wind.

• Total installed capacity now at 12.5GW.

• Renewable energy now accounts for 55% of its capacity.

• Signed a 25-year power purchase agreement with Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd for 250MW wind energy at a tariff of Rs 3.65/kWh.

• The project is expected to be commissioned in 24 months.

On Banks

UBS

• The CRR cut of 100 basis points is a positive surprise for the sector.

• Expected to release Rs 2.5 lakh crore of surplus liquidity, aiding 2–3% deposit growth.

• Could lead to a positive NIM impact of seven to nine basis points.

• Easing stance from RBI is positive for banks, especially mid-cap banks.

• HDFC Bank and Axis Bank had the highest LDR among coverage banks in the March quarter.

• CRR cut to partly offset NIM impact of rate cuts, starting in the December quarter.

• HDFC Bank is the brokerage's preferred pick.

Citi

• Citi sees significant relief to lenders for 2025 (particularly gold loan NBFCs).

• Softens several stricter provisions outlined.

• Directions are notable relaxed and formally includes silver too as collateral.

• Loan to value limit for consumption loans relaxed to 80-85%.

• No credit assessment required for loans up to Rs 2,50,000.

• Standard asset provisioning of 1% on breach of LTV norms is removed.

• Section on income generating loans is removed.

• Suitable document or declaration from borrower enough to establish ownership.

• No mention of periodic end-use monitoring or evidence.

JPMorgan On Premier Energies

• The brokerage maintains a 'neutral' call with a target price of Rs 1,013, implying a 4% downside.

• Management highlighted improved demand outlook for DCR cells.

• JPMorgan flagged currently elevated margins, low entry barriers, and delays in demand as risks.

• The company is confident that the 25 GW market can double in the next few years,

• The company is targeting a 20% market share.

• Foreign demand remains strong, with a near term focus on domestic market.

Motilal Oswal On Time Technoplast

• The brokerage initiated a 'buy' call with a target price of Rs 578, indicating a 41% upside.

• Optimistic about its value-added composite products (LPG and CNG cascade cylinders).

• Improving financials to turn net debt-free over the next 1-2 years.

• Estimated annual free cash flow of Rs 400 crore will be used to pare debt and achieve net cash status in the next fiscal.