Oil Prices Jump As OPEC+ Supply Boost Vies With Geopolitical Risk

In London, benchmark crude futures have been glued to $65 a barrel since the middle of May. (Source: Freepik)

Oil surged after OPEC+ increased production less than some had feared and geopolitical concerns flared over Ukraine and Iran.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Saturday to add 411,000 barrels a day of supply in July, but there were objections from some members including Russia. With a handful of countries lobbying for a pause in July, banks are now split on how many more hikes will come in subsequent months.

Monday's gain — Brent crude added as much as 4.4% to top $65 — is also likely being aided by an unwinding of bearish bets taken in advance of the decision. The group had been considering returning an even bigger volume late last week, and speculative short positions in Brent were already the highest since October prior to the meeting.

“The worst of the fears was laid to rest,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics. “Brent shorts are now at the highest level in 2025, which makes sense given the bearish headlines coming out of OPEC. However, this is creating a recipe for a spike if spot healthy market fundamentals continue to roll on.”

There were other bullish catalysts for crude, too. Ukraine struck air bases deep in Russia, while Iran criticized a report showing its growing stockpiles of enriched uranium, in escalations that reduce the chance of more supply from the sanctioned OPEC+ members entering the market. Wildfires in Canada are also threatening output in the world's fourth-largest producer.

US futures also pierced the psychologically significant 50-day moving average. That marker had largely helped keep a lid on prices over recent weeks.

In London, benchmark crude futures have been glued to $65 a barrel since the middle of May, as robust short-term fundamentals counter expectations that there will be an oversupply later in the year. Alongside OPEC+'s output hikes, oil has taken direction from the fortunes of the trader war between the US and China, which threatens to sap consumption this year.