Jefferies Maintains 'Buy' On Adani Green Amid Strong Growth Outlook

Jefferies has maintained its 'Buy' rating for Adani Green Energy Ltd. with a target price of Rs 1,300. The brokerage noted that the management reinforced confidence in its journey to raise capacity 3.5 times from 14 GW in FY25 to 50 GW by 2030. Improving net debt to Ebitda ratio trends also remain underway.

The brokerage further added that, "we estimate 4.5 GW addition in FY26E and 6.3 GW in FY27E. Guidance of 5 GW addition in FY26E was reiterated, which gives upside scope to our estimates if achieved."

Jefferies highlighted that Adani Green is developing 30 GW RE capacity of its planned 50 GW at Khavda with a phase-wise evacuation plan that broadly matches project commissioning timelines.

"Currently, Khavda capacity is 5.6 GW. Management previously highlighted that ramping up will take place in step jumps as now Khavda has a fair amount of basic infrastructure in place. The location has the best solar irradiation levels after Ladakh in India and should help incremental utilisation levels at over 30% from 24.8% in FY25. Our estimates factor 25.5% for FY26E-28E"

Jefferies noted that management limits volatility through advance land acquisition, back-to-back module tie-up, locking rates through long tenure bonds and digitalisation which enables process driven execution.

"Our price target of Rs 1,300 values the company at 20 times EV/Ebitda Sept 27E and is a premium to our 15 times target multiple for JSW Energy, given the higher growth and pure renewable assets," the brokerage said.

The company continues to show progress in its net debt-to-Ebitda trends, indicating healthier financial leverage. Jefferies estimates 4.5 GW capacity addition in FY26E and 6.3 GW in FY27E, while the company has reiterated its guidance of 5 GW addition in FY26E, suggesting potential upside to current estimates if achieved.