Here Are the S&P 500 Bull Cases Helped by a Trade Agreement
(Bloomberg) -- Putting an end to the U.S.-China trade war is central to some of the bigger bull cases for stocks in America and abroad. With equity futures perking up on news a deal is close on tariffs, the following is a sampling of what strategists have said the impact might be.
March contracts on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 100 rose 0.3 percent as of 10:33 a.m. in London, while Nasdaq contracts were up 0.4 percent. Negotiators are nearing an agreement that could lift most or all U.S. tariffs as long as Beijing follows through on pledges ranging from better protecting intellectual-property rights to buying American products, two people familiar with the discussions said earlier.
European stocks started the week on a positive note, too, as miners and media companies led the advance amid trade optimism. Investors are also looking forward to the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday.
Record Run
The S&P 500 could climb to about 3,020 should a “real deal” between the U.S. and China get struck, Bank of America strategists said in a note in February. That would exceed the September all-time high of 2,930. The reversal of 2018 tariffs would add 1 percent upside to companies' per-share earnings growth, the strategists said.
June High
About 250 points of upside could be realized in the S&P 500 if trade concerns thaw, Keith Parker, head of U.S. equity strategy at UBS, said in December when the benchmark was priced near 2,670. That would send the S&P 500 up toward 2,920 -- a 4 percent gain from Friday's close. Last week, he said the major average could reach new highs by the end of June, heading toward his year-end target of 2,950.
Headline Risk
JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic estimated in June that market reactions to trade headlines had yanked $1.25 trillion in value from U.S. stocks. In September, Kolanovic warned that per-share earnings for S&P 500 companies could drop by as much as $10 if bilateral tariffs of 25 percent were imposed.
What Wall Street Is Saying Now
Here are more recent comments from market strategists and investors:
Kristina Hooper, the chief global market strategist at Invesco Ltd.:
“Recent reports suggest that the U.S. and China are very close to a trade deal. That should be a real positive for stocks globally, especially Chinese stocks; it wouldn't be surprising to see stocks rise more than 2 percent on the news,” Hooper said Sunday. “However, I would caution that stocks can go down as easily as they rose if the talks don't truly culminate in an agreement -- and I believe that is still a very real possibility. Recall that just last week Robert Lighthizer poured cold water on the president's suggestion that a trade deal was close to fruition, cautioning Congress that significant hurdles remain as Lighthizer wants to see real structural reforms,” she said. “I don't expect China to agree to significant concessions such as intellectual property protections – and I believe that even more now that we are starting to see some improvement in Chinese economic data, as manufacturing PMI for February improved. If we get an actual deal, I would expect stocks globally to rise significantly.”
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management in Minneapolis, said Sunday:
“They are just talking about eliminating tariffs the U.S. put on in the last year. That is not that unexpected and it would be good a deal was reached but I am not sure this deal is much more than was already expected and overall far from blockbuster news. That is, good for market on headline because war is over but probably not much ongoing positive for stocks.”
Paul Nolte, a portfolio manager at Kingsview Asset Management, said Sunday:
“This quote has been making the rounds for the past few weeks. We have seen each time the news of getting close hits the tape, stocks have reacted positively. Depending upon how close is close, stocks should jump at the open. It will do wonders for China, which could reignite global growth, likely held back by trade and tariffs.”
Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded “The Sevens Report” newsletter:
A trade deal addressing all three trade issues -- reduction of the trade deficit, expanded market access, and elimination of intellectual property theft -- would trigger a rally of as much as 5 percent, he wrote to clients last week. A deal that addresses all issues but only partly removes tariffs would trigger a short-term bounce that shouldn't be chased. And a pact that addresses the trade issues but doesn't include tariff removal would cause a decline.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Ponczek in New York at sponczek2@bloomberg.net;Elena Popina in New York at epopina@bloomberg.net;Gabriella Lovas in Budapest at glovas2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeremy Herron at jherron8@bloomberg.net, Chris Nagi
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
-
Talking Points This Week: Tech Nerves, FII Buying, And A Faraway Banking Shock
The global markets are not shining this Diwali. The exception in the large markets is, India.
-
Midterm Rally Lasted A Day. The Hard Reality Of A Divided US May Last Two Years | Opinion
Between a contested AI boom, a debt ceiling that arrives in 2027 and a president with every incentive to act alone, the next two years may prove more volatile than the first day's rally suggests.
-
Blue Wave Will Derail the AI Trade but Won't Dismantle the AI Era | Unhedged Position
The Democrats' sweep of the US Congress will see politics collide with economic forces both over the long and short term.
-
It's Time To Take The GST Council's Bet On Trust Global
Payment records can prove India's services exports, and clear, proportionate rules can bring foreign digital sellers into the tax net.
-
Opinion | India at 38: From Innovation Overperformer to Innovation Powerhouse
India now has 453 VC-backed deep science startups, 18 of them late-stage, after 117 percent growth since 2020. Laurus Labs, at USD 9.3 billion, is the most valuable deep science company in any middle-income economy outside China.
-
Navigating Energy Crossroads: S Jaishankar's Call For Diversified Supply Chains At G20 Ministerial Meeting
As geopolitical fault lines continue to test maritime trade routes and commodity flows, Jaishankar's message remains pertinent: true economic resilience requires open markets, protected transit lines, and a genuine commitment to multilateral cooperation rather than coercion.
-
Indians Are Travelling, But Not Every Journey Is A Holiday | The Week In Whys
Pilgrims, patients and working women are the real travellers, and the system hasn't quite caught up with them.
-
Getting To Work Costs Women More | The Reason Why
It is not just about women paying more than men. It is about women paying much more in cities than in villages.
-
AI Bias In Investing Cannot Be Eliminated, But It Can Be Governed
Framing is a particularly important example as identical financial information presented in terms of gains rather than losses can lead an LLM to reach a different assessment.
