Goldman Sees Upside Oil Price Risk Despite OPEC+ Supply Decision
(Bloomberg) -- Oil prices are primed for gains as Thursday's decision by OPEC+ to proceed with planned production increases won't derail an ongoing structural bull market, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The investment bank sees “very clear upside risks” to its forecast for Brent oil to average $85 a barrel in 2023.
U.S. shale producers will be cautious in their spending plans for 2022 because of recent low prices. And while there's slower growth in shale production, in the meantime, OPEC's spare capacity will be reduced more quickly than if the group had decided to pause on output increases, Goldman said. That's especially if there is no deal to allow more Iranian oil on the market next year.
Recent price declines, amid concern that the omicron variant of coronavirus will damage demand, have been overdone and current prices offer “compelling opportunities” to reinvest, the Goldman analysts said. Brent crude futures dipped as low as $66 a barrel earlier Thursday, after the OPEC+ decision, and subsequently rebounded to $70 as the producer group kept the door open for further immediate adjustments, if needed.
In the short term, the oil market needs more information on the virulence of the latest coronavirus variant for oil prices to start recovering, and may need more evidence of a tight physical market to lift oil prices above $80, Goldman said.
Goldman also said that while OPEC+ has often reiterated caution over the past year, Thursday's decision is consistent with past decisions to add supply in a weaker demand environment. And it eases tensions with the U.S. administration, which coordinated the release of national stockpiles among major oil consuming countries last month after U.S. crude prices rose to a seven-year high.
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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