Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week

Screens display the price of Bitcoin in U.S. dollars at a CoinUnited cryptocurrency exchange in Hong Kong, China, on Friday, March 4, 2022. Bitcoin fell below $38,000 on March 8, touching its lowest price in a week, as global markets tumbled on concerns that spiraling commodities prices unleashed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have a wider and longer-lasting impact than previously thought.

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Aramco reports first-quarter earnings this week, marking the end of the reporting season for the world's largest oil companies. Meanwhile, the dismal performance of US energy stocks may not be over, according to one technical indicator. Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodities.

Oil

For just the second time in Commerce Department records back to 1994, the US registered a petroleum-trade surplus after adjusting for inflation. Exports of oil and products surged more than 24% in March to a record $27.6 billion in the biggest monthly advance since 2017. The nation imported $27.1 billion in petroleum, the least since November, data released last week showed.

Crude endured a wild ride to start the month of May, with West Texas Intermediate and Brent futures both falling for a third straight week. The drop came days after the OPEC+ coalition began a new round of production cuts designed to help prop up prices and preemptively guard against a weakening macroeconomic outlook. Traders will be focused on OPEC's monthly oil-market report due Thursday for further guidance on supply and demand. Reduced output by the cartel this year has prompted analysts to revise their year-end price outlooks, with the median forecast now at $86.38 a barrel for Brent and $82 for WTI, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Saudi Aramco

The world's biggest energy company releases its quarterly results on Tuesday, wrapping up the first-quarter earnings season for Big Oil. Saudi Aramco likely made net income of just over $32 billion, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. That would mark a slowdown from a year earlier — similar to other oil firms that have already reported, including BP Plc and Shell Plc — but still a strong number by historical standards. The state-controlled company announced a dividend of $19.5 billion for the fourth quarter and has said it wants to maintain payouts at that level, if not raise them.

Energy Stocks

The slump in US energy stocks may be far from over. Despite strong earnings from the largest-weighted members of the S&P 500 Energy Index — think Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. — uncertainty over the global economy and oil consumption have traders on edge. A look at the technicals adds to the bearish sentiment: The gauge's 50-day moving average fell below its 200-day average last week in a so-called death cross, the first time since late 2018. That often signals that further selling pressure is in store. Year-to-date, the 23-member index is the worst performer among the S&P 500 Index's 11 industry groups and is down 8.2%.

Metals

The price of a key component of batteries that power the world's electric vehicles is seeing a tiny bit of respite after a massive plunge. Lithium carbonate prices in China, which tumbled 70% since hitting a record in November, have rallied in recent days on renewed optimism over EV demand. The metal will certainly be in focus when explorers and producers gather at the Canaccord Genuity Global Metals & Mining Conference in Palm Desert, California, this week. According to BloombergNEF's New Energy Outlook 2022, demand for the metal will be 16 times the total lithium in use today by 2040, potentially outrunning supply by more than 40%.

Agriculture

American corn exports will be in focus on Friday when the US Department of Agriculture releases its first outlook for the upcoming 2023-24 season as part of the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. A massive Brazilian corn harvest has meant product from the US — traditionally the biggest corn producer and exporter — is more expensive than shipments from South America, making it less attractive for buyers. The cancellation of US sales by China could force the USDA to trim its outlook for exports.