SpaceX will publish its third-quarter numbers on Tuesday, and Tesla will follow a day later, with both releasing results after US markets close, Reuters reported. The timing lets investors size up Musk's two biggest companies one after the other, just as chatter about a possible merger between them picks up.
Both companies are spending heavily on AI, and the results should show whether their established money-makers, Starlink for SpaceX and vehicle sales for Tesla, are strong enough to support that spending, according to the report.
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The Merger Question
A recent Barclays note said a deal could come before Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, scheduled for December 3, with SpaceX more likely to be the one buying. Musk and the two companies, however, have not formally backed a merger. If the deal were done entirely in stock, Barclays estimates Musk would end up with about 37 per cent of the equity and 56 per cent of voting power. Last Thursday's Roadster reveal only added to the buzz. Tesla showed off the car, due for production in 2028, at a SpaceX test site in Texas, where it used rocket technology to leap and flip in the air.
SpaceX: Can AI Spending Pay Off?
SpaceX, which listed in June after folding in Musk's xAI in February, is reporting as a public company for only the second time. LSEG data shows analysts expect revenue of around $12.74 billion and earnings of 14 cents per share. In the previous quarter, the company booked $7.8 billion in revenue and a $541 million loss while spending $15.8 billion on AI. Its connectivity business, which includes Starlink, grew 66 per cent to $4.3 billion over the same period.
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Tesla: Profits Under Pressure
For Tesla, analysts forecast adjusted earnings of roughly 43 cents a share, compared with 50 cents a year earlier, on revenue of about $27.88 billion. The carmaker delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, ahead of estimates, but analysts expect negative free cash flow of $4.92 billion for the quarter, while capital spending is set to exceed $25 billion this year. Its stock is down about 17 per cent in 2026, with Wall Street focused more on robotaxis and the Optimus robot than on car sales.
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