Amit Shah On Recent Dalal Street Fall: Market Will Shoot Up After June 4

Home Minister Amit Shah has weighed in on the recent market fall. In an exclusive interview to Vikas Bhadauria, national affairs editor, NDTV India, Shah said that the market will “shoot up” after the election results are announced on June 4, 2024.

The Home Minister isn't too worried about the recent fall though. Over the last six-month period, benchmark index Nifty 50 is up over 12%, while over a one-year period it is up almost 20%. “The market has fallen more in the past as well. Thus, linking market movements directly to elections, is not wise. Maybe the fall was due to some rumours. In my opinion, buy before June 4. The market is going to shoot-up.”

The nation went to poll for phase three of the Lok Sabha election on May 7. Since then, Sensex and Nifty have fallen over 1.5%. While the NSE Nifty 50 is down 1.64% since May 8, S&P BSE Sensex has seen a decline of 1.71%. Meanwhile, the market volatility gauge, India VIX, which was at 17 points on May 8, has surged to over a 52-week high of 21.41 on Monday.

Shah explained why he was optimistic about where the Indian stocks markets were heading. “Whenever there is a steady government, markets do well. Modiji is coming back as the prime minister for the third time. Thus, my prediction.”

The Elections So Far

Shah is often credited for his grass-root understanding of an election. When asked about how the first three phases have gone for the Bhartiya Janta Party, the Home Minister has projected victory for his party in 190 seats. India has so far, in the three out of seven phases of Lok Sabha 2024 elections, voted for 283 seats. 102 in phase one, 88 in phase two and 93 in phase three.

“In the three phases till now, I expect BJP to win over 190 seats. Thus, we have built a good lead. I am also positive that the fourth phase is going to go very well for us. I expect to gain ground in eastern India—Bengal, Odisha. Even in North East, we should do better,” he said.

A key consideration in this election is how the BJP will fare in southern India, where traditionally they have not been the top player. According to Shah, this is about to change.

“In the five southern states—Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala—overall, BJP will emerge as the largest party,” predicted the Home Minister.

In the fourth phase, the electoral fate of several prominent candidates like Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, Union Minister Giriraj Singh, TMC's firebrand leader Mohua Moitra and AIMIM's Asaduddin Owaisi will be decided on Monday. A total of 96 Lok Sabha constituencies across 10 states and Union Territories are in play in this phase of the general elections.