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PL Capital Report
PL Capital highlights that power sector performance in Q4 FY26 is expected to be mixed, with underlying demand showing limited traction.
Peak demand grew by ~2% YoY to 245GW; energy consumption also rose by ~2% YoY to 425 billion units. Power prices continued to moderate, with day-ahead market (DAM) prices declining ~12% YoY to Rs 3.9/kWh, led by higher renewable generation and comfortable coal availability, keeping supply conditions benign.
Operational performance remained mixed across players—NTPC reported ~4% YoY decline in generation with plant load factor moderating to 65% (-400 bps YoY), while Tata Power saw a sharp decline in generation due to disruptions at Mundra.
CESC reported stable performance with ~3% YoY growth in generation. The coverage universe is expected to report modest PAT growth of ~2% YoY , with divergence across companies.
CESC, NTPC, IEX and Power Grid saw PAT growth, while Adani Energy Solutions, Coal India and Tata Power could see a decline.
Power Grid Corporation, NTPC, CESC remains PL Capital top picks.
Skymet's latest forecast indicates a below-normal monsoon for FY27 in India, which could support higher power demand in the coming quarters, given that around 40– 45% of power consumption (agriculture and residential segments) is weather-sensitive.
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