Trudeau’s Tory Rival Could Quickly Become Political Roadkill

(Bloomberg) -- The leader of Canada's main opposition Conservatives is fighting for his political life, with members of his own caucus seeking to oust him amid a long-simmering feud over the party's direction. 

Erin O'Toole, who took the reins as leader in August 2020, has been attempting to quell a rebellion since the party finished second to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals in last fall's election. Now, about a third of the 119 elected Conservative lawmakers have called for a confidence vote at their caucus meeting Wednesday.

O'Toole has faced internal criticism over his policy stands, including reversing the party's opposition to carbon pricing. But the revolt has been given new energy by the trucker convoy that's been occupying the downtown core of Canada's capital to protest against Covid-19 vaccine mandates.

The military veteran and former corporate lawyer has been misreading where right-wing politics have been heading in Canada, particularly during the pandemic as grassroots members have grown frustrated with lockdowns and other public-health restrictions, according to Conservative strategist Kate Harrison. 

“The impression that leaves with Conservative Party supporters is that he is not leading the movement, he's being led by the movement,” Harrison, vice-chair at Ottawa-based consultancy Summa Strategies, said by phone. “Leadership comes down to reading the room and knowing the right emotion and the tone to strike.”

Wednesday's vote in Ottawa also raises questions about the party's ability to stay united. It was formed in 2003 by merging the centrist Progressive Conservatives with the more populist Canadian Alliance. Prior to that, the Liberals capitalized on a divided opposition to win three straight majority governments.

‘Anger vs. Optimism'

O'Toole wasn't in parliament on Tuesday, but has made it clear he intends to fight the attempted ouster. “I'm not going anywhere and I'm not turning back,” he posted on social media late Monday night. He described his opponents as trying to the take the party in an “angry, negative, and extreme” direction.

“It's time for a reckoning,” O'Toole said. “Anger vs. Optimism. That is the choice in simple terms.”

He told caucus members Tuesday that he's willing to change his policies if he survives the secret-ballot vote, Global News reported, citing unnamed party sources.

Those backing O'Toole's leadership are emphasizing the need for party unity in order to stand any chance of defeating Trudeau and his Liberals, who were held to a minority government in September's vote. 

“We only win when we're united,” Fraser Macdonald, spokesman for a new group calling itself the Majority Committee, said in a video message Tuesday morning. “The stakes are so high right now that we absolutely must win the next election.”

But some Conservative members of parliament are openly opposing O'Toole's leadership, which may make it difficult for the 49-year-old to stay in power even if he ekes out a victory in Wednesday's vote.

“His position is untenable,” Garnett Genuis, an Alberta lawmaker who was a key O'Toole ally during the 2020 leadership race, said in a statement Monday night.

Although he ran for the party helm as a hard-line, “True Blue” conservative, O'Toole pivoted to a more moderate stand afterward. He also promised that would lead to gains in the Toronto and Vancouver suburbs that often swing Canadian elections, but in last year's campaign the Conservatives lost seats in those areas.

Since the truckers rolled into Ottawa on Friday, some Conservatives -- including finance critic Pierre Poilievre, a possible contender for the top job -- have staunchly embraced the protest. But O'Toole, wary of the more extreme views of some of the organizers, has avoided identifying closely with the convoy.

Patience is now running thin, according to another Alberta lawmaker who previously backed O'Toole. The current leader has had “more than enough chances for a course correction to resolve the concerns of many of the grassroots members of our party,” Bob Benzen said a statement. 

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