Emmanuel Macron’s Lead Narrows in French Election Polling Average
(Bloomberg) -- French President Emmanuel Macron led his rivals in the April 10 election with 27.5% support, down from 27.7% a day earlier, according to a polling average calculated by Bloomberg on April 1.
- Macron was 7.0 percentage points ahead of second-placed Marine Le Pen, down from 7.2 points
- Fabien Roussel gained the most support, 0.4 points
- Eric Zemmour lost the most, 0.9 points
| 2022-03-31 | 2022-03-30 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron | 27.5 | 27.7 | -0.2 |
| Marine Le Pen | 20.5 | 20.5 | 0.0 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 15.2 | 15.3 | -0.1 |
| Eric Zemmour | 9.8 | 10.7 | -0.9 |
| Valérie Pécresse | 9.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
| Yannick Jadot | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Fabien Roussel | 3.2 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
| Jean Lassalle | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Anne Hidalgo | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Philippe Poutou | 1.0 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
- Here's how the top candidates' poll performance has evolved:
- Pollsters also published forecasts for a possible second round, to take place two weeks after the first one if no one wins outright:
| Contest | Difference, pp | Prev. day |
|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Macron vs. Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 22.0 | N/A |
| Emmanuel Macron vs. Marine Le Pen | 9.0 | 8.3 |
The Bloomberg polling average is based on polls published on the website of the French government commission for polling. The data are standardized for automated analyzis by NSPPolls. For polls with more than one first-round scenario, Bloomberg uses the median support numbers across the scenarios to calculate the average. Here are the polls used for the current average:
| Pollster | Research Finished | Population | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | March 31 | Likely Voters | 990 |
| Opinion Way | March 31 | Registered Voters | 1,562 |
| BVA | March 31 | Likely Voters | 1,154 |
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
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