Lonely Dinner Gives May Some Brexit Breathing Space

(Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders had already decided to rip up their planned response to Theresa May by the time the British prime minister had ended a nervous 90 minutes in front of them.

Sitting round a circular table in the Europa building in Brussels on Thursday afternoon, the conclusion was that even May herself didn't think her Brexit deal would be approved by the U.K. Parliament next week. Even worse, she was ready to crash Britain out of the bloc on March 29 anyway – and blame others for the impending economic catastrophe.

Their original idea had been to try to help May win the vote by making a Brexit delay conditional on the deal being approved. It would also leave open the option of a high-stakes summit hours before the U.K.'s scheduled departure. Indeed, the plan had been written up overnight by EU officials and was contained in sealed envelopes in front of each of the 27 premiers.

The result is that Brexit rumbles on. All that's clear is that next week's deadline has been pushed back, May has a little breathing space and the EU thinks her position has never been more precarious.

The discussion among EU leaders heated up after it became clear May's appearance had left the group rattled, according to diplomats and officials on both sides who asked not to be named discussing private meetings.

Repeatedly, she had been asked what her Plan B was. Repeatedly, she responded in a way that persuaded them she didn't have one. May ended up having a lonely dinner with a glass of red wine from a bottle dropped off by summit caterers.

French President Emmanuel Macron was the most forthright after May left the room. The pressure next week will all be on the EU rather than the U.K. and we'll be forced into giving the British whatever they ask for, he told his fellow leaders. This wasn't acceptable, he said.

Despite creating a “safe space” for her to speak openly, without even aides in the room, she gave little more away than if she had been talking in public, said officials briefed on the meeting. One leader got the impression she had already decided she was going to lose the vote in Parliament and was further nurturing a “betrayal” narrative.

Some leaders had watched her televised address in London the night before in which she blamed members of parliament for the Brexit crisis. Leaders had privately discussed with each other whether her time was nearly up.

The heads of EU governments, who have been reluctant since the U.K. referendum in 2016 to tackle Brexit matters personally, started throwing around possible solutions. The aides, still locked outside the room and having to rely on text messages from their bosses, scrambled to make sense of the ideas being proposed, sharing information with their counterparts from other countries to form a fuller picture.

At one point, more than a dozen officials, including the EU's deputy chief Brexit negotiator, Sabine Weyand, the architect of the Brexit deal, and ambassadors from several countries, squeezed into a corridor to crowd round a single tablet computer where the latest plan was being revealed.

Various dates were floated for the U.K.s extension -- April 23, May 1, May 7, May 23, June 1, even Dec. 31 -- some conditional on May's plan passing next week, some not.

Macron was accused of plucking dates out of thin air; he countered he was just trying to brainstorm. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose country will be one of the hardest hit by Brexit, surprised some by his light mood. German Chancellor Angela Merkel took on the role of mediator, at times reminding leaders of the seriousness of the situation.

Some dates were dismissed because of national sensitivities: April 23 because it's England's St George's Day, May 7 because it's the eve of commemorations in the U.K. and France of “Victory in Europe” at the end of World War II. Others didn't like May 23 because it could mean the U.K. crashing out just before EU-wide elections.

It rapidly became clear that the idea to end the debate before welcoming May back in for dinner and a discussion about the EU's relationship with China, wasn't going to happen. Apologies were sent to the prime minister that she would have to dine with her aides separately from the others. She was offered the lentil terrine followed by roast duckling a l'orange that was served to other leaders, but refused.

Inside the summit room, the work went on. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar later said some countries far away from the U.K. were “sick of this” and just wanted the process done, while those with more at stake wanted to cut May some slack.

At one point, a smaller core group broke away. Led by Macron and EU President Donald Tusk, they started to nail down a final plan, with the aim of putting the burden for any decision on the U.K.

Tusk left the room and visited May in the U.K. delegation room where he briefed her on some of the ideas being floated. She pushed back on some of the long and very short extension ideas that were in play.

Leaders were now focusing on a new date. May had told them that U.K. law meant that the country had to decide by April 12 if it would take part in European Parliament elections the following month. They concluded that this should be made a hard deadline.

The EU will allow the U.K. to delay Brexit until then to enable May one last chance to get her deal through. If she does, the extension will continue until May 22 to allow Parliament to pass outstanding legislation.

If she doesn't, EU leaders will return to Brussels for another summit -- probably on April 10 -- to discuss the way forward based on decisions made by May and the U.K. Parliament. They'll be confronted with the choice of gearing up for a no-deal Brexit or allowing the U.K. a longer-term rethink by extending its membership of the bloc into 2020.

As the discussion drew to a close shortly before 11 p.m., there was one last scenario gnawing away at leaders' minds, and it brought them back to May's shaky appearance five hours previously. What if she holds a vote on the deal right before April 12, loses and is forced to resign?

So leaders made one more condition, stating that the Brexit extension would be dependent on whether or not May gets her deal passed next week. If it fails, it gives the U.K. two weeks of breathing space to work out what to do next.

Their main goal had been achieved: responsibility for what happens was firmly back with May and the U.K. Parliament.

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen summed it up on Friday morning: “What we decided yesterday leaves the British with all kind of opportunities,” he said. “It's up to them to decide.”

--With assistance from Dara Doyle, Jonathan Stearns, Lyubov Pronina and Gregory Viscusi.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Emma Ross-Thomas at erossthomas@bloomberg.net, Rodney Jefferson

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