Johnson Risks Cut to U.K. Majority in First Electoral Test
(Bloomberg) --
Boris Johnson is facing his first test at the ballot box since becoming U.K. prime minister in a by-election in the Welsh district of Brecon and Radnorshire on Thursday.
The anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats are favorites with bookmakers. If they win, Johnson's paper working majority in the House of Commons would be reduced to just one, making his balancing act more difficult as he seeks to deliver Brexit on Oct. 31 -- with or without an EU deal.
The premier's Conservative Party is defending an 8,038-vote majority in the seat, which became vacant after Conservative Member of Parliament Chris Davies was convicted of faking expenses claims and was forced out by a recall petition. The local Tory Party selected Davies to stand again in Thursday's vote, despite his conviction.
Johnson, whose strategy has been to commit to leaving the EU “come what may” by Halloween in a bid to win back voters who defected to the Brexit Party in the European elections in May, visited the constituency on Tuesday to support the campaign.
The Brexit Party is running a candidate in the election and the result, in a district which is estimated to have voted 52% - 48% vote for Leave in the 2016 referendum, will give an indication of how well Johnson's strategy is cutting through with voters.
The Liberal Democrats see the vote as a chance to capitalize on their resurgence since their poll ratings were decimated following five years in coalition with the Conservatives that ended in 2015. The party, which last week elected Jo Swinson their new leader, won 20% of the vote in May's European Parliament election and their national support has been at about the same level in recent surveys.
Neither Plaid Cymru, which campaigns for Welsh independence, nor the Green Party put up a candidate, instead urging their supporters to vote Liberal Democrat to maximize the chances of sending a “Remain” MP to Westminster.
Polls close at 10 p.m. on Thursday evening and the result is expected in the early hours of Friday morning.
To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Penny in London at tpenny@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tim Ross at tross54@bloomberg.net, Alex Morales, Andrew Atkinson
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
-
A New Samvat Wishlist: Inclusive Prosperity And Human Development
India has strengthened its economic foundations through infrastructure, digital access and enterprise. Its next growth chapter must deepen productivity, create better livelihoods and widen participation in prosperity.
-
Love, Sex Aur Dhokha: The Audacious Plot To Spy On Jensen Huang
A Taipei dinner, a Singapore chip buyer and a suspected Chinese asset: inside the alleged spy operation that got close to NVIDIA's Jensen Huang.
-
Ten Things I Learnt This Samvat
Patience can be a trap. Cheap stocks can stay cheap. Leverage can wipe you out. What did Samvat 2082 teach us? Niraj Shah writes on 10 lessons from the year gone by.
-
Talking Points This Week: Tech Nerves, FII Buying, And A Faraway Banking Shock
The global markets are not shining this Diwali. The exception in the large markets is, India.
-
Midterm Rally Lasted A Day. The Hard Reality Of A Divided US May Last Two Years | Opinion
Between a contested AI boom, a debt ceiling that arrives in 2027 and a president with every incentive to act alone, the next two years may prove more volatile than the first day's rally suggests.
-
Blue Wave Will Derail the AI Trade but Won't Dismantle the AI Era | Unhedged Position
The Democrats' sweep of the US Congress will see politics collide with economic forces both over the long and short term.
-
It's Time To Take The GST Council's Bet On Trust Global
Payment records can prove India's services exports, and clear, proportionate rules can bring foreign digital sellers into the tax net.
-
Opinion | India at 38: From Innovation Overperformer to Innovation Powerhouse
India now has 453 VC-backed deep science startups, 18 of them late-stage, after 117 percent growth since 2020. Laurus Labs, at USD 9.3 billion, is the most valuable deep science company in any middle-income economy outside China.
-
Navigating Energy Crossroads: S Jaishankar's Call For Diversified Supply Chains At G20 Ministerial Meeting
As geopolitical fault lines continue to test maritime trade routes and commodity flows, Jaishankar's message remains pertinent: true economic resilience requires open markets, protected transit lines, and a genuine commitment to multilateral cooperation rather than coercion.
