Imran Khan Bets Pakistan Drama Will Help Him Return to Power

(Bloomberg) -- To avoid losing a no-confidence vote in parliament, Pakistan leader Imran Khan instead triggered an unprecedented political crisis. Now the question is whether voters will reward him at the next election.

In a series of events on Sunday that stunned Pakistan, a member of Khan's party scrapped the parliamentary vote over alleged foreign interference before the prime minister swiftly called an election in a nationally televised address. The president, another Khan ally, dissolved parliament shortly afterward.

The opposition was livid. Shehbaz Sharif, who was set to take power after the vote, said Khan should be charged with treason since the constitution forbids the dissolution of parliament during a no-confidence debate. Even Khan's deputy attorney general resigned, calling the moves “illegal” and saying the former cricket star “made a mockery of the constitution.”

Now Pakistan's Supreme Court will decide whether Khan gets his wish for an election, or whether the no-confidence vote should proceed. A three-judge panel said it would review arguments on Monday. 

But no matter what they eventually decide, Pakistan needs to hold a national vote by August 2023 -- and Khan is betting the drama on Sunday will help him return to power. The president said Khan will continue as prime minister until a caretaker is appointed.

“Its a move to try and survive,” said James Dorsey, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “Clearly he feels comfortable that he can win another election.”

Khan's maneuvering is about more than just his own political future: It also has geopolitical implications. To justify his move to circumvent the no-confidence vote, Khan has repeatedly blamed foreign interference from the U.S. despite the Biden administration's denials. 

That will make it harder for Khan to repair ties with the U.S. if he hangs on, likely pushing Pakistan even closer to China and Russia. It also raises questions about talks with the International Monetary Fund over releasing funds from a loan needed to shore up Pakistan's foreign reserves and tame Asia's second-fastest inflation.

Khan put the IMF program in jeopardy by cutting domestic fuel and power prices to temper public anger over rising living costs. The uncertainty has roiled markets in recent weeks, with the nation's default risk climbing and the rupee trading at a record low against the U.S. dollar. 

On Monday, the benchmark KSE-100 Index fell by as much as 2.4%, the biggest drop in a month.

Khan's opponents have vowed to improve relations with the West if they win power, and General Qamar Javed Bajwa -- Pakistan's army chief -- on Saturday called for better U.S. relations. Tensions had risen recently between Khan and the army, which has ruled Pakistan for nearly half of its history, over his anti-U.S. foreign policy and opposition to a key military promotion. 

Mysterious Bill Gates Photo Highlights Imran Khan's Army Crisis

Khan, however, isn't going down without a fight. As coalition allies abandoned him in the days ahead of the vote, he vowed a “big surprise” and referenced his days on Pakistan's cricket team: “A captain always has a plan.”

On Saturday he drew parallels between himself and Imam Hussain, a grandson of Prophet Muhammad who was killed in the medieval battle of Karbala. His own political fight was to show “people the difference between the truth and falsehood,” Khan said on Twitter.

Still, many Pakistani constitutional experts saw Khan as clearly in the wrong for the move to shut down the no-confidence motion. The document was amended in 2010 to prevent this precise scenario by forbidding the dissolution of parliament's lower house until a vote took place. 

Explaining the moves to party members on Sunday afternoon, Khan again referenced evidence of U.S. interference and said defectors from his party met with American Embassy personnel. The no-confidence motion, he said, was “all foreign planned to interfere in Pakistan's politics.”

Khan has little to lose by bringing Pakistan to the brink of a constitutional crisis. Now his party can claim to be on the side of the average citizen in pushing for an election, even though opposition parties have been calling for a vote since last year. 

If the judges rule in Khan's favor, it will further legitimize his attacks on the opposition before the next national vote. And if the court rules against him, Khan can continue to raise the issue of foreign interference while constantly pressing for a new election. 

It's unclear whether Pakistan's voters will buy the foreign conspiracy line. A Gallup poll in February showed Khan's approval rating dropped to 36% from 40% in 2018, while that of Nawaz Sharif -- Shehbaz's brother, a former prime minister now in self-exile in London -- more than doubled to 55% in that time. 

Khan's latest moves show his “desperation” and “a lot of disappointment has set in” among the public, according to Burzine Waghmar, a member of the Centre for the Study of Pakistan at SOAS University of London.

“Khan is out of his depth and grabbing at straws in the wind,” he said. “If anything people will lodge a protest vote against him.”

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.