Balance of Power: Trump Defies 70 Years of U.S. Policy on Jerusalem

(Bloomberg) -- As a candidate, Donald Trump boasted he could stand on New York's Fifth Avenue “and shoot somebody” without losing votes. On Saturday, after the Senate passed his tax-cut proposal, he declared himself “unbeatable” in 2020.

Trump will again demonstrate his belief in his own invincibility today when he spurns warnings from Middle East leaders, European allies and even the Pope — not to mention 70 years of U.S. foreign policy — and formally declares Jerusalem to be Israel's capital.

“No president up to now has wanted to risk it because there is no upside to doing it,” said Ilan Goldenberg, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. With the Palestinians claiming the city as a capital of a future independent state, Trump's move could trigger riots and the targeting of American embassies, Goldenberg said.

Trump is attempting to make good on a campaign pledge to “move the American embassy to the eternal capital of the Jewish people” that was popular among more conservative Jewish people and evangelical Christians, a bedrock of his base.

But the risks are myriad for Trump, who's grappling with low approval ratings and a Russian meddling probe in the U.S. Any resulting unrest in the Middle East could quickly add to his political difficulties.

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And finally... When Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned in a televised address from Saudi Arabia last month, it was one of the more bizarre political events in a region that's no stranger to the unexpected. Some Lebanese even believed he was being held hostage by the Saudi ruler to further his nation's battle for influence with Iran. Now Hariri's back home, more popular than ever, and vowing to remain in office after his governing partners pledged to stay out of neighboring conflicts. As for what really happened in the desert kingdom, he says he'll never tell.

--With assistance from Dana Khraiche

To contact the author of this story: Kathleen Hunter in London at khunter9@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Karl Maier at kmaier2@bloomberg.net.

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