India’s Trade Deficit Widens To $21.5 Billion In March Amid Trump Tariff Jitters

India's trade deficit expanded to $21.54 billion in March, from $14.05 billion in February, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

Merchandise exports were almost flat on a year-on-year basis, growing by 0.7% to $41.97 billion in March, while merchandise imports grew by 11.3% to $63.51 billion.

On a monthly basis, exports grew by 13.75%, while imports grew by 24.6%.

For the full fiscal, overall exports were at a record high, crossing $820 billion, according to commerce secretary Sunil Barthwal. While exports grew 5.5%, imports grew 6.8% from a year ago to $915.2 billion.

Merchandise exports were flat at $437.4 billion in fiscal 2025, while imports grew by 6.2% to $720.2 billion. In case of services, exports grew 12.45% to $383.5 billion, while imports grew 9.3% to $195 billion.

While the impact of tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump is unclear for March, the impact will become clearer going forward, Barthwal said. Global trade data for fiscal 2026 will depend on geopolitics, and on how countries enter deals with US.

"Hazarding a guess on India, there are growth concerns as well as opportunities in terms of current tariffs," he said, adding that if India follows the path of trade levelisation with the US via bilateral trade agreements, India's trade with the US will grow. The ministry is targeting $500 billion in trade with the US by 2030, he added.

Centre Cautious Of Dumping

There are elevated apprehensions related to likely flooding of imports, cautioned L Satya Srinivas, special secretary at the department of commerce, adding that an import-surge monitoring group has already been set up with representation from the Department of Commerce, Directorate General of Foreign Trade, Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs and Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade.

Santosh Kumar Sarangi, director general at the DGFT, said that exporters have been asked to report any surge in exports, adding that recent government assessment has highlighted the risk of merchandise dumping into the country due to reciprocal tariffs.