Fiscal Deficit Widens To 64% Of Revised Estimates Till January

Various denominations of Indian rupee notes are arranged for photograph (Photo: Vijay Sartape/NDTV Profit)

The Union government's fiscal deficit till January expanded to 63.6% of the budgetary target for the current financial year.

It has come on the back of slower capital expenditure and a more comfortable headroom for revenue expenditure as compared to the same period in the last fiscal.

In actual terms, the fiscal deficit comes up to Rs 11.02 lakh crore of the total limit set at Rs 17.34 lakh crore. The target was lowered to 5.8% of the gross domestic product in the revised estimates from the estimated 5.9% in the 2023 budget.

The monthly increase in the fiscal deficit in January came up to Rs 1.2 lakh crore, a rise in line with the first month of every quarter, according to data from the Controller General of Accounts on Thursday.

Details of the Union government's accounts released by the Ministry of Finance reveal that the pace of capex dipped in the first month of the fourth quarter.

In January, the capex slowed to Rs 47,557 crore, compared to Rs 87,985 crore in December. This puts the total capex in the current fiscal at Rs 7.21 lakh crore or 75.9% of the revised capex target of Rs 9.49 lakh crore. The corresponding level of capex made during the same period last year was 78.3%.

"While there may be some slippage in the disinvestment target and capex may trail the FY24 revised estimates, ICRA does not expect the revised fiscal deficit target of Rs 17.3 trillion (lakh crore) for FY24 to be breached," Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said.

"The government's gross tax revenues need to record a moderate 6% growth in the last two months of FY24 to meet the revised estimates for the year, which seems imminently achievable," Nayar said. "In particular, the corporate tax collections may exceed the revised estimates for FY24."

Here are the numbers pertaining to the April–January period of the current fiscal as compared with the same period last fiscal:

Revenue receipts stood at 82.2% of the budgetary estimate of Rs 22.17 lakh crore, as against 81.7% achieved over the corresponding period last fiscal.
Total expenditure: 74.7% vs 75.7%.
Revenue deficit: 49.4% vs 61%.
Capex: 75.9% vs 78.3%.
Net tax revenue: 80.9 vs 80.9%.
Non-tax revenue: 90% vs 88.2%, buoyed by a surplus dividend from the RBI earlier in the year.
Spend on major subsidies: 76% vs 77%, led by the nutrient-based fertiliser subsidy, which has already exhausted the budgeted levels.