What Shareholders Can Expect From Musk’s New Tesla Roadmap

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Elon Musk tweeted early this week that he will be on Tesla's next earnings call in January and provide an “updated product roadmap.” He'll also talk about this year's “supply chain nightmare.”

Musk sees everything that the company does — including building new factories in Austin, Texas, and near Berlin — as Tesla products. So while he will likely focus on vehicles on the horizon, I expect we'll get an update on the progress of the factories, too. We could also hear about any number of other products, including Tesla Insurance; fans might even be able to get a $50 whistle shaped like the Cybertruck, assuming it's ever back in stock.

To review: Tesla currently makes the Model S, X, 3 and Y in Fremont, California, and the Model 3 and Y in Shanghai. Tesla also is building a new factory in Lathrop, California, for Megapack, its utility-scale battery product.

Here's a quick reminder of everything else that Tesla has unveiled and that customers and investors are eager for updates on.

CYBERTRUCK
Musk unveiled the Cybertruck two years ago, in November 2019. Of all the vehicles on Tesla's plate, the Cybertruck is the one that has generated the most interest. The idea is to make it in Austin, Texas, after the Model Y. Tesla's website, which still takes fully refundable $100 deposits for the Cybertruck, says “you will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in 2022.” I would not be surprised if this timeline slips further.

SEMI
Musk unveiled the Semi truck four years ago, in November 2017. Musk has suggested the Semi is on hold until Tesla can make or source a new type of battery cell in high volume. The new, larger 4680 battery cells were one of the big highlights of Tesla's “Battery Day” last year. Tesla is making the 4680s on a pilot line in Fremont, but also plans to procure them from long-time supplier Panasonic. In its third quarter earnings release, Tesla said that “the 4680 in-house cell project continues to progress. We are producing an increasing number of battery packs for testing purposes, and so far, the test results meet our current expectations.” That sounds promising, but volume production remains a work in progress.

ROADSTER
The big reveal at the Semi event in November 2017 was chief designer Franz von Holzhausen driving the next-generation Roadster out of the back of the Semi. We haven't heard about this vehicle in a while; Tesla's most recent shareholder deck says it is still in development.

FUTURE PRODUCT
In his Master Plan, Part Deux, Musk said Tesla's line up would “cover the major forms of terrestrial transport.” Most expect a cheaper, $25,000 car made in China. But what else? A bus? Minivan? Has Tesla ever considered an electric bike? Tesla's 3Q investor deck (see page 7) lists a “Future Product” in development.

There also are the Tesla Energy products, including the Solar Roof and Powerwall for homeowners.

What do you think the focus will be? Always eager to hear your thoughts: dhull12@bloomberg.net.

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