Titagarh Rail Target Price Raised By HSBC Citing Strong Growth Visibility

Titagarh Rail Systems Ltd.'s target price was raised by HSBC Global Research as the order backlog shows strong visibility to the growth outlook.

"Q2 results improve our confidence in Titagarh's execution capabilities," the brokerage said.

HSBC raised the stock target price to Rs 970 apiece from Rs 900 apiece, implying an upside of 15% while retaining a 'buy' rating as the order backlog stood at eight times trailing four-quarter sales.

As the largest wagon manufacturer and an emerging leader in passenger coaches, Titagarh Rail is benefiting from the government's thrust to put more freight onto rails as well as the modernisation of passenger rail transportation, according to HSBC.

Q2 Review

• Revenue up 54.08% at Rs 935.5 crore.

• Ebitda up 108.97% at Rs 115.1 crore.

• Margin at 12.3% vs 9.07%.

• Net profit up 56.9% at Rs 70.6 crore.

Revenue grew 54% year-on-year, driven by 70% growth in the freight rail systems segment, while passenger rail systems growth was soft at +7%, HSBC said.

"Revenue up 3% quarter-on-quarter was in line with our expectation. Profitability was impressive, with the Ebitda margin coming in at 13.5% (up 320 basis points y-o-y, 60 basis points q-o-q)," the note said. Although strong profitability was expected, given high wagon shipments from the private market, it said.

"We maintain our FY24-26 revenue forecasts but raise FY24e EPS by 13% and FY25e-26e EPS by 4-6%. With a significant jump in profit in FY25e (75%), we expect profit to grow at a 30% CAGR over the next two years, with an average ROIC of 23% over FY24e-26e," HSBC said.

Earnings Highlight

• Titagarh Rail Systems is on track to ramp up wagon production to 1,000 per month by the end of the year, up from an average of 600–700 wagons currently.

• Management highlighted that progress on the Vande Bharat contract is on track. It is also on track to start producing Bengaluru metro coaches by December 2023, the brokerage highlighted.

• The company is seeing strong demand for wagons from the private sector, having finalised orders worth Rs 12 billion in the past few months and having an order backlog from the private market (26 freight rail systems order book).

• The company attributes superior profitability in Q2 to a higher share of private-market wagons in overall execution.

• Management said that the build-up in receivables (up 75% y-o-y) is a temporary phenomenon related to the execution mix and back-ended execution in the quarter. It expects working capital to normalise by year-end, the note said.

Key Downside Risks

• High customer concertation: A very high proportion of Titagarh's revenue comes from one government customer, that is, Indian Railways. This high customer concentration is a source of risk as the size of the business opportunity, profitability, and terms of execution are subject to the policies of Indian Railways, HSBC said.

• Slower-than-expected execution ramp-up of its order backlog: A very large part of the revenue for Titagarh comes from fulfilling its current order backlog. Consequently, if this is slower than expected, there is a risk to its earnings, according to the note.

• Weaker-than-expected margin: Nearly 44% of Titagarh's order backlog comes from one large order: carriages for a high-speed passenger train called the Vande Bharat. This is a contract secured through competitive bidding, the brokerage said. "Titagarh's management has guided for an 8–10% Ebitda margin for this contract, but we are conservative and build in a 7.0–7.5% margin. A lower-than-expected margin in this contract will have an impact on profitability for many years, given the long execution cycle of the project," it said.

• Slowdown in government spending on railway infrastructure: Titagarh's largest client is Indian Railways (FY23 revenue contribution was 62%). Any reduction in railway capex spending and delays to tendering would impact Titagarh's performance.

Shares of the company rose as much as 4.27% before paring gains to trade 0.20% higher at 10:23 a.m. This compares to a 0.15% advance in the NSE Nifty 50.

The stock has risen 242.6% on a year-to-date basis. Total traded volume so far in the day stood at 1.7 times its 30-day average. The relative strength index was at 48.22 as of 10:12 a.m.

All seven analysts tracking the company maintain a 'buy' rating on the stock, according to Bloomberg data. The average 12-month consensus price target implies an upside of 29.6%.