The Yen May Rally Further in 2019

(Bloomberg) -- The yen is set to end the year as the biggest winner against the dollar among major currencies as investors sought out safety amid 2018's uncertainties.

The haven asset outperformed as the pound and euro faced headwinds from Brexit and Italy's budget crisis, while the U.S.-China trade war and plunging oil prices pressured commodity-related peers such as the Canadian dollar. The yen was up more than 2.5 percent on the year at 109.88 per dollar in New York on Monday. Meanwhile, the Japanese currency's share of global reserves rose to 5 percent in the third quarter, the highest in 16 years.

If headwinds keep blowing in 2019, the yen could “win by default” to tack a fourth year on its streak of annual gains against the dollar, said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of foreign-exchange trading strategy at Credit Suisse Group AG.

“News in Japan has been less negative than it has been in some other places, at least relative to original expectations, over the course of 2018,” Jalinoos said in a telephone interview. “And that allowed the yen to play the role of a safe asset of sorts within the framework of a generally negative year for risky assets.”

This year, the yen rose amid greenback weakness early on, but gave back those gains after the dollar turned things around in April. After touching its weakest level of the year against the greenback in October, the yen advanced in December amid volatility in equity markets.

In the absence of factors that could inspire investor confidence in risky assets and global growth in 2019, Jalinoos expects the yen to remain a favorite. The average forecast from a Bloomberg survey sees the yen strengthening to around 109 per dollar by the end of 2019.

Marvin Barth of Barclays Plc, however, said the Japanese currency could gain even more -- to 107 yen per buck by end-2019. Next year's yen advance will come as investors find themselves concentrated in dollar risk and look for sources of diversification in the Japanese currency, he said.

“The yen is quite undervalued from a long-run historical perspective,” the Barclays head of foreign-exchange and emerging-market macro strategy research said in a telephone interview. The forecast of 107 is “not a huge appreciation in the yen, but it is outperforming other currencies.”

Jingyi Pan, Singapore-based market strategist at IG Asia Pte, echoes forecasts for a stronger yen in 2019.

“With the array of worries including the uncertainty over the growth outlook expected to prolong, the haven trade may well be kept in favor,” she said. “The eventual pause for the current Fed hike cycle could see yield differentials aiding the yen on its next leg up, something that had been absent in the past two years.”

--With assistance from Ruth Carson and Masaki Kondo.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sydney Maki in New York at smaki8@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net

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