Macron’s Lead Over Le Pen Is Shrinking, And He Needs French Voters to Turn Up

(Bloomberg) -- Emmanuel Macron is spending the final week before France's presidential election trying to connect with voters through campaign stops and media appearances as polls show the gap between him and far-right leader Marine Le Pen narrowing.

The French leader went on a popular morning radio show on France Inter on Monday to explain his program, before traveling to western France where he spoke about road construction and European Union funding. He's given interviews to two local papers.

Up until now, Macron has been focusing on the crisis in Ukraine and while he benefited from an initial rally-around-the-flag effect, he's under increasing criticism for not getting out and campaigning that much.

His refusal to join rivals for debates is adding to a perception of aloofness that's plagued him throughout his five-year term. Macron's absence was notable Tuesday night on a national political program -- when five other presidential hopefuls appeared to discuss their proposals. Macron argues that no incumbent has ever debated challengers ahead of the first round.

The latest surveys show Macron would beat Le Pen by 53% to 47% in a runoff on April 24. That six percentage-point gap, based on an average compiled by Bloomberg, has more than halved from a month ago. French stocks underperformed European peers on Tuesday and the country's bonds were more volatile after the race tightened.

Macron has been courting rural voters to expand his traditional base of affluent, urban residents. But he could lose if his rival in the second round builds an anyone-but-Macron coalition and left-wing voters don't bother showing up.

As president, Macron has tended to bypass the media and speak directly to the people. “Voting on Sunday will let us know to what extent the French people think this is a viable strategy,” said Georgina Wright, director of Institut Montaigne's Europe Program.

If Macron ends ups re-elected with a narrow margin or there's a high abstention, there is a risk he'll lack the solid mandate needed to carry out unpopular reforms. Wright said she'd expect him to then reverse course and engage more. He'd be the first incumbent to prevail since Jacques Chirac 20 years ago.