Libya at Dangerous Juncture as Parliament Wants Defiant PM Out

(Bloomberg) -- Libya's fragile peace hangs in the balance as a standoff between parliament and the OPEC member's interim prime minister threatens plans for ending a decade of chaos and division and boosting oil production.

The North African nation's parliament is set to vote on Thursday for a new prime minister to replace Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, the interim head of government who refuses to step aside before a presidential election takes place. Lawmakers argue that his government's mandate ended when authorities failed to hold a scheduled ballot for the presidency in December.

In a sign of the soaring tensions, a car carrying Dbeibah was shot at by unidentified assailants overnight in the capital, Tripoli, in an apparent assassination attempt, local websites reported. The premier escaped unharmed.

Why Libya's Hard-Won Peace Hangs in the Balance: QuickTake

The presidential vote was to have signaled a fresh start for oil-rich Libya after a devastating years of conflict and economic ruin that followed the toppling of longtime dictator Moammar Al Qaddafi in a NATO-backed revolt in 2011. It was a key element of a broader peace plan, crafted after years of United Nations-brokered talks, designed to unify rival administrations in Libya's east and west, and put various militias under a single national command. 

Now the current standoff risks destabilizing the country following more than a year of relative calm that allowed for a recovery of oil production. If Dbeibah digs in and parliament names a new prime minister, Libya could once again fracture, as it did in 2014, into two parallel governments competing and fighting against each other -- with significant implications for the global oil market.

“Dbeibah will stay firmly in power in all cases. He will not be toppled. He will not step down,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a senior fellow at the Switzerland-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. “There is zero chance of Dbeibah exiting power,” and that means the emergence of rival administrations once again, he said.

“Things will continue to evolve in ways that eventually offer rewards to actors willing to carry out large scale violence or an oil blockade,” Harchaoui predicted. 

Libya Delays Historic Presidential Election With Just Days to Go

Libya sits on Africa's biggest oil reserves, and its vast energy infrastructure has been at the heart of the political conflict, with armed groups or protesters periodically shutting down facilities to press political or economic demands. The country managed to keep its production over 1.2 million barrels a day for most of last year after a cease-fire was reached in late 2020 and Dbeibah's interim government was formed. 

A re-emergence of oil blockades and rival state institutions could deprive Libya of billions of dollars needed to help the economy recover from years of war. New volatility would also be injected into the oil market, already fearful of a potential shortfall.

At a briefing Monday, UN spokesman Farhan Haq declined to comment on the appointment of a new premier, while urging Libyans to rise above divisions. A “more unified executive, more unified banking system, that is the way forward,” he said. 

Dbeibah, a powerful businessman backed by local groups in the west, was appointed a year ago to head Libya's first unified administration in about seven years. 

His main task was to steer the nation toward the presidential vote, but the election was postponed amid disputes over electoral laws and key candidates including Dbeibah, eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar, and Qaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, who's wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes. 

Libya Parliament to Vote on New Premier on Feb. 10

Dbeibah is saying he won't leave office until an elected government is installed. He called for street protests to denounce the naming of a new prime minister and warned in a televised speech Tuesday that replacing him would lead the country back to “chaos.”

At best, those elections will be months off -- the legislature has said they might be in 2023. Dbeibah is talking about June, in keeping with a UN target. 

Parliament will be choosing between former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha and the largely unknown Khalid al-Baibas.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.