Keep Up the Pressure Against Israel’s Annexation Plan

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- July 1, the date on which Israel's coalition government proclaimed it could begin annexing Palestinian territory in the occupied West Bank, passed without any land-grabbing. Though Israel doesn't appear to have made any major preparations on the ground for such a move yet, diplomatically or politically, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to give up on his plan to seize Israeli settlements and the strategic Jordan Valley.

The key figure is President Donald Trump, who is expected to make an announcement soon; his administration has not yet finalized its position on how much, if any, of the West Bank Israel can swallow before the U.S. election in November.

The hesitation by both Netanyahu and Trump suggests both are still calculating their odds. There is yet time to convince Israel to step back from the abyss.

Israel must consider the growing prospect of a Joe Biden presidency in January, and an American government determined to reverse the damage that Netanyahu and Trump have inflicted on hopes for a two-state solution. A weakened, discredited Trump plainly cannot and does not speak for the U.S. on this, as has been demonstrated by bipartisan calls on Israel to desist.

The Palestinian leadership, meanwhile, has moved beyond its categorical rejection of the Trump peace plan, proposed in January, that paved the ground for Netanyahu's annexation policy. The Palestinian Authority has formally proposed the resumption of negotiations with Israel, based on where talks left off in 2014. This gives Israel a potential off-ramp from the road to annexation, and refutes the argument there is no one to talk to on the other side.

But it is essential that pressure be maintained on both parties. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas secured unanimous support from Arab and Muslim countries—including some Gulf Arab countries are pursuing closer ties to Israel and have strong relations with Washington—against Israel's annexation plan. That chorus should now press him to build publicly on the formal response Palestinians say they made privately on June 9, and make the case for new talks.

Likewise, the voices that warned Israel against annexation should now urge Netanyahu to parley with the Palestinians instead of killing off the last hopes for peace. This group includes many key Arab states and most governments in Europe; over 1,000 European parliamentarians signed a letter against unilateral Israeli measures. There has also been calls for restraint from senior UN officials, and even countries that have heretofore been silent, such as Australia.

But, as ever with Israel, it is American voices that will count the most, and they are hitting some unusual notes. Netanyahu can hardly have failed to notice the strong push back from normally supportive quarters in U.S. politics. Nearly 200 members of Congress, including most House Democrats, have signed a letter expressing opposition to annexation. Many of the signatories are stalwart Jewish supporters of Israel. A smaller group of 12 advocates cutting aid to Israel, should it proceed.

In a letter of their own, Republican members of Congress, allied with evangelical Christian groups, have defended Israel's right to act unilaterally. But this threatens to further politicize support for Israel in the U.S.—just as Republican fortunes appear shaky.

More striking is the opposition, or at best ambivalence, from the Jewish-American leadership. The main pro-Israel lobby group, AIPAC, has focused its criticism on the small group calling for aid cuts—but not on those who signed the letter opposing annexation. Most other major Jewish groups have made it clear they dislike the idea; while they may defend Israel in the event of annexation, it will be halfhearted and reluctant, with all the effectiveness that implies.

So when Biden says he is opposed to annexation and “will reverse” anything Trump agrees to that threatens a two-state solution, he's not actually taking any political risks.

Taken together, these voices formed something approaching an international consensus against annexation, and may have helped to dissuade Netanyahu from proceeding with his plan in coming weeks. This is no time to turn down the volume.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

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