JPMorgan Says Wall Street Is Too Negative About a Biden Win
(Bloomberg) -- Wall Street is too negative on prospects for the markets if Democratic candidate Joe Biden wins the U.S. presidential election in November, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Numerous factors could make Biden more market-friendly than analysts currently predict, including a historical tendency to converge toward the political center, potential benefits from infrastructure spending, a softening of tariff rhetoric and higher wages, strategists including Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note Monday. They also said the tax hit to S&P 500 earnings is likely to be lower than many are expecting, and that an increase in the federal minimum wage would probably be net positive for companies.
“The consensus view is that a Democrat victory in November will be a negative for equities,” the strategists said. “However, we see this outcome as neutral to slight positive.”
Wall Street has gone from relief that Biden is the presumptive nominee over more progressive candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, to concern that an election victory could hurt stocks through policy moves like a rollback of Trump-era tax cuts. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said Democratic tax changes could lower S&P 500 earnings per share to $150 from its forecast $170 in 2021.
A survey last month by RBC Capital Markets showed investors are more worried about the November election than another wave of Covid-19 infections.
Others say Democratic gains could be relatively benign for markets. Experts at the Scowcroft Group who have followed Washington policymaking for decades said last month that investors shouldn't be nervous about the prospect of a Biden presidency, noting that Biden might act in a less disruptive way on trade than President Donald Trump. Credit Suisse's Jonathan Golub sees the prospect of higher tax rates as a “headwind not an impediment.”
JPMorgan looked at stocks that may fare better or worse if Biden is the victor in November. Potential outperformers under a Democratic agenda include companies like Tesla Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Caterpillar Inc. and Apple Inc., according to the report. Underperformers might be firms such as Apache Corp., Northrop Grumman Corp., AT&T Inc. and Wynn Resorts Ltd., they said.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
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