Goldman Economists Caution Against Copying Sweden Virus Strategy

(Bloomberg) --

Sweden's light-touch approach to containing Covid-19 may be working in Scandinavia's biggest economy, but it would be wrong to regard it as a model for others to emulate, according to Goldman Sachs.

Swedish schools, gyms, bars and shops have remained mostly open during the pandemic. On Tuesday, a report showed Swedish GDP may be contracting a lot less than economies elsewhere.

Despite the absence of a strict lockdown, Sweden's fatality rate as a share of the population is lower than in most of the major European economies. Meanwhile, Sweden's top epidemiologist says there are signs the infection rate has stabilized.

But Goldman says none of that is evidence that other countries adopting Sweden's hands-off response to Covid-19 would achieve similar results. That's because a number of uniquely Swedish demographic factors have shielded it from the worst, a team of Goldman economists led by Sven Jari Stehn said in a note.

Read more: GDP Surprise as Less Stringency Limits Virus Blow

“The Swedish experience therefore cannot be extrapolated to support a swift reopening elsewhere,” Goldman said. “Its population density is about half that of Italy, and Sweden has a high proportion of single-occupancy households, and a relatively low proportion of multi-generational households.”

Sweden's death rate, though not as bad as in places like the U.K. and Spain, is much worse than in neighboring Denmark, Norway and Finland. But importantly, the development has at no point overwhelmed Sweden's health-care system.

In a recent interview with Danish state broadcaster DR, Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell explained his strategy, arguing that severe restrictions make little sense for a virus that's likely to be around for a long time.

“The long-term sustainability of strict rules isn't that big. You can only impose such restrictions for a limited time,” he said. “So you need to find a different way, and our model may prove more sustainable.”