COP27: Focus Should Be On Adaptation And Finance Rather Than Lofty Ambitions

Since the start of Conference of Parties of the UNFCCC in Berlin, Germany in 1995, COPs have largely become ritualistic barring a few landmark events. Copenhagen 2009 was one, but there was more hype and hope than outcome. Then came the Paris Accord in 2015 where we could actually get to an agenda, but there as well, there was more discord than accord, with the US President Donald Trump eventually walking out despite the signing of the agreement by the administration led by Barak Obama. Thankfully, there has been a turnaround by President Biden.

Over time, negotiators have realised, to make real progress, heads of states have to be involved.

After Paris, COP26, held in the UK last year, was an important event as far as climate agendas go since the countries could come to some understanding on Net Zero targets, with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi committing to Net Zero by 2070.

So what should one expect out of this conference? Before we get into it, we need to understand the hype created around Net Zero.  

Net Zero: Hype vs Reality

Setting Net Zero targets is in fact a very good step because if we don't have some clear targets, then we would never be able to achieve anything. At the same time, it is important to understand that commitment and action are two different things. We have already committed to many even under the Kyoto Protocol. COPs have also made many commitments, particularly for transfer of funds to developing countries, but that has never happened. There's already a lot of gap which exists between very good intentions, commitments and action on the ground.

What does it mean to achieve Net Zero by 2050? It actually means that the emissions from that point of time to future will come to zero. But what does it mean for the here and now?

The extreme climatic events we are witnessing today are occurring not because of future emissions, but because of the past historic emissions. Even if in another 25, 30 years we achieve Net Zero, scientists have warned that the climate has irreversibly changed. This principle was accepted by the UNFCCC and for now that debate is over.

The question to be raised is, will Net Zero targets in the future help us or not. Yes and No. Yes, because if by then some technological interventions happen, we'll not only be able to abate future emissions, but also deal with current emissions.

Bring Back Focus on Adaptation

But the challenge before COP27 in Egypt is to ensure adaptation becomes a part of the agenda, which at this point is unfortunately missing. 

Net Zero talks about abating future emissions, which is mitigation, but it is not talking about the here and now—that is adaptation. We forget that scientists have warned that present emissions will remain in the air for another 20, 30 years, so we are dealing with adaptation measure for another 50, 60 years even if we adhere to Net Zero targets.  

One hopes that Egypt, as a developing country, is able to lead this debate and try to work on adaptation issues in a significant way. 

In a Net Zero scenario, everyone wants to be a hero, but I hope the net result is not zero. 

Secondly, the focus on climate finance cannot shift. Over the years, billions of dollars have been promised to developing countries for adaptation and mitigation efforts, but we haven't seen even a few million come our way. Where's the promised money? We need a finer focus on money, how it flows, and its usage.

Another important aspect of all of this is, while at political level we have arrived at some commitments, there are a lot of intricacies that have to be dealt with. So unless we use COP27 to work out how these lofty commitments will be upheld, it's a wasted opportunity.

India needs to play a key role in evolving the climate agenda since we are undoubtably a victim of climate change. In fact, 2022 has been the year where science no longer needs to speak, climate change has already spoken. From Yangtzi in China in the east, to the Colorado river in the west, to Tigris in the middle, rivers are drying up like never before, sending up a red signal where human survival itself is at stake. 

Science was already warning us, but people voted with their feet, and now climate has spoken. 

One hopes that COP27 is not just another photo opportunity for leaders to assemble and then disappear into thin air, where the air itself has already changed for the worse.   

Suresh Prabhu is the Chancellor of Rishihood University, visiting professor of London School of Economics & Political Science, he has held 10 cabinet minister portfolios and is a six-time Member of Parliament.

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of BQ Prime or its editorial team.