(Bloomberg) -- Brazil is getting its last wave of much-needed fertilizer from Russia before supplies plunge due to the Ukraine war, potentially hurting harvests in the biggest grower of crops from coffee to sugar to soybeans.
Dozens of Russian vessels laden with fertilizer are heading to Brazil, with a final ship unloading May 5, according to StoneX analysts. After that, it's anyone's guess where Brazil, which imports 85% of the fertilizer it needs, will get supplies as war disrupts shipments in Russia, the top supplier.
A fertilizer shortage in Brazil could result in smaller harvests and higher food costs globally, given the importance of the South American nation to world crop supplies.
“We'll see imports declining in May and June,” StoneX analyst Luigi Bezzon said in a telephone interview. “The war impact on Brazilian imports is seen higher in the second half of the year.”
Read more: Brazil is desperate for fertilizer, and Belarus wants to supply more
It takes 30 to 40 days for a ship to make the journey from Russia to Brazil. No other vessels have left Russia since the start of the war that are heading to Brazil, according to Bezzon.
The ships currently en route from Russia are carrying around 550,000 tons of fertilizers, with nearly half transporting potash. Fertilizer deliveries from all origins totaled almost 46 million tons in 2021, according to figures from the industry group Anda.
Brazil's fertilizer imports and deliveries in the first quarter are almost steady compared with the same period last year, a record for the sector.
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