Adani Group Is At Its Healthiest In At Least Five Years

Adani Group is at its healthiest in at least five years, as far as its credit profile is concerned, so much so that the ports-to-mining conglomerate sees no refinancing risks in the near term.

That, despite a bruising short-seller attack in January last year and global headwinds stemming from geopolitical crises in Europe.

The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of the billionaire Gautam Adani-led group increased 60% over the year-ago period to Rs 19,475 crore in the three months ended Dec. 31, according to an investor presentation. In the first nine months of FY24, ebitda stood at Rs 78,823 crore.

Over FY19–23, Adani Group's ebitda levels have clocked a compounded annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 27% and are seen at seven times FY19 levels by FY27.

That's resulted in better cash flow even as debt at the group level ebbed.

Net debt of the Ahmedabad-based conglomerate fell 3.5% to Rs 1,78,350 crore in the six months through Sept. 30. Cash balances have improved: Rs 43,952 crore as on Dec. 31 versus Rs 40,351 crore at the end of FY23—a growth of nearly 9% over nine months.

The net debt-to-ebitda ratio has improved to 2.5X as on Sept. 30, 2023, from 3.8X in FY22.

There are “no material risk and near-term liquidity requirement”, the conglomerate said in a statement on Feb. 29, adding that “near-term maturities have been fully funded”.

The Adani Group has been steadily recouping lost ground since US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research published a report in January 2023 alleging wide-ranging corporate fraud at the conglomerate. Adani Group denied all allegations. Since then, it has trimmed debt, garnered fresh equity investment, and is now marketing its first dollar bond since weathering the rout caused by the short-seller.

In January this year, the Supreme Court gave a clean-chit of sorts to the Adani Group, reposing faith in India's market regulator—the Securities and Exchange Board of India—to investigate any disclosure breaches and possible price manipulation of Adani stock in violation of existing laws. An independent committee, set up by the top court, had previously concluded that a regulatory failure by SEBI could not be ascertained.

“Adani Enterprises is at the core of everything India wants to accomplish,” Brett Knoblauch and Thomas Shinske, analysts at US-based broker Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., said in a Jan. 28 report. The flagship company can deliver a gain of more than 50%, they said, while initiating coverage as overweight. The risk-reward “is attractive at current levels.”

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