When Will China Name a New PBOC Chief? Here's What We Know

(Bloomberg) -- The question of who'll run the People's Bank of China in a new era has been the subject of speculation since Governor Zhou Xiaochuan first hinted at his retirement in October.

The answer may be imminent.

Top Communist Party officials gathered in Beijing for a three-day conclave that ended Wednesday, a final round of horse-trading on key government posts for the next five years. A consensus is expected to have formed on matters such as who the next chief of the PBOC will be, but a communique late Wednesday didn't specify names or their intended posts.

Read More: China Approves List of Nominees to Fill Top Government Positions

Hints of policy direction or media leaks are possible, at any time from now until the end of the National People's Congress -- China's legislature -- which will conclude in late March.

Read More: PBOC Retirement Hint Puts Economists in Play for Governor Job

While current bank regulatory chief Guo Shuqing and Hubei provincial party chief Jiang Chaoliang have both been tipped for the post, President Xi Jinping's top economic policy adviser and Politburo member Liu He has recently been named by analysts in connection with the top monetary policy job and a vice premier position. Such appointments would elevate him to an economic-policy status unparalleled since Zhu Rongji simultaneously led the PBOC and held a vice premier title in the 1990s.

A caveat: Now that Xi has cast aside term limits, China's old-school consensus-building procedures might not run quite like they used to. For PBOC watchers, here are a few key dates for the next few days:

March 3 

• The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the nation's top political advisory body, will start its annual meetings in Beijing
• Zhou, who's also a vice president of the CPPCC, will attend the meetings and is expected to step down from the role as the organization renews its leadership
• Hundreds, if not thousands, of journalists will cover the event. While Zhou isn't known for making impromptu comments, there's always a chance he could move markets

March 4

• The president and deputies of the NPC, China's top legislature, plus other officials, will convene for a preparatory meeting
• That session sets the agenda for the annual meetings and will establish the end date. The day the legislature closes will be a key date to watch

March 5

• The annual NPC meetings will start in Beijing, running alongside the CPPCC (together they're commonly known as the two sessions)
• Zhou will be at the meeting, though he isn't a NPC member
• Premier Li Keqiang will deliver his annual government work report, which is a key guide to policy priorities ahead

Mid March

• If no central bank appointment news emerges by the middle of the month, the PBOC's regular press conference during the NPC meetings will be a good place to watch
• The PBOC chief and a few deputy governors usually attend and take media questions
• It's unknown, so far, whether the same press conference will be held this year

Late March

• If the announcement doesn't come during the meetings, the matter should be settled once and for all on the last day
• NPC delegates will vote for a new premier, who will then nominate cabinet members, including the new PBOC governor 
• NPC delegates will hold a vote on whether to approve candidates
• The number of votes that the new governor has received will be displayed on a large screen in the meeting hall. That might be something interesting to watch, too

--With assistance from Xiaoqing Pi

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Yinan Zhao in Beijing at yzhao300@bloomberg.net, Will Davies in Hong Kong at wdavies13@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.

With assistance from Yinan Zhao, Will Davies