Asian Countries in Crosshairs as Trump Hunts for 'Trade Abuse'

(Bloomberg) -- Of the 16 countries that will face scrutiny from President Donald Trump's administration over possible "trade abuse," more than half are in Asia.

The size of America's trade deficits with not just China but key allies and trading partners around Asia underscores the challenge facing Trump.

Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye, economists at Maybank Kim Eng Research in Singapore, have broken down how the 90-day investigation into the source of U.S. trade deficits may impact Asia.

Among Asian nations, those with the biggest bilateral trade surpluses with the U.S. are China, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea. China's easily ranks as the largest at almost $350 billion, five times that of second-placed Japan. (Charts are courtesy of Maybank.)

China is also the subject of the most trade complaints filed by the U.S. with 21, followed by Canada, India, South Korea, Mexico and Japan, with six each, according to the Maybank analysts. Indonesia has racked up four complaints, while none have been filed by the U.S. against Thailand, Malaysia or Vietnam.

Disputes against China are mostly in the auto, agriculture, circuits, aircraft, metals and intellectual property sectors. Only five have been completely settled. Indonesia has been tagged over horticulture, animal products and automobiles.

Trump's study will examine U.S. trade deficits “country by country and product by product” to assess the extent they are caused by “cheating or inappropriate behavior,” according to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. Trump also ordered strengthened enforcement of existing countervailing duties and anti-dumping penalties against foreign products to address under-collection.

South Korea's trade deal with the U.S. will likely come in for scrutiny too, the Maybank analysts said.

"Targeting the 16 countries directly is a sign that the Trump administration prefers direct bilateral negotiations and settlement over a sweeping border tax," the Maybank economists wrote. "A targeted approach will have a smaller system-wide impact and is less of a risk for markets and growth. Demand and trade diversion, and currency adjustments are offsetting forces which mitigate any direct trade impact."

Whatever happens, the overall economic impact may be muted. The Maybank analysts pointed to prolonged and heightened trade tensions between the U.S. and Japan in the 1980s, which had no visible impact on the overall Japanese markets or economy.

"We cannot think of a trade-war case in post-war history that led to a severe economic slowdown or market sell-off," the analysts wrote.  

To contact the author of this story: Enda Curran in Hong Kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Henry Hoenig at hhoenig@bloomberg.net.